“God willing, next year we will try for this not to happen.”So that's comforting. The author meanders for many more paragraphs without revealing a single clue how a country rich in natural gas can't keep the power on. Can't get it out of the ground? Can't transport it? Can't build or properly maintain power plants? No power lines to get the electricity to homes or businesses? He barely seems curious.Eventually it occurs to him how to blame it on (1) Jews, (2) stingy foreign investors, and (3) the refusal to use less energy, but that's not until paragraphs 19 and 22.Regime change is a tempting hope, if only there were some reason to believe the country contained people with a clue what to replace it with. I doubt the problem will be solved by blaiming Jews, demanding charity from foreign investors, or conservation. At some point they're going to have to grasp how non-totalitarian economies work, or just drift back into the stone age--a maddening fate for a people with a rich history and natural resources.
Where does electricity come from, anyway?
As far as I can tell, neither the author of this NYT piece (not paywalled, I think) nor anyone running the show in Iran knows the answer to that question. Paragraph 5 takes us as far as the Iranian president's apology for having to cripple the country with power outages, and his plan for a solution:
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My husband sent this one, too, by the way, with the comment "Iran is going Green, like North Korea."
The Germans, who have their own reasons to wonder how a large country could run out of power, actually asked that question directly.
https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-energy-giant-iran-facing-gas-shortages/a-71110948
From Grim's link. The NYT article suffers by comparison.
The sanctions, aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, have targeted Iran's oil exports, banking and shipping, among other sectors. The measures effectively crippled the country's economy.
Tehran claims the sanctions have hindered investments in gas field development, power plant construction, and efficiency improvements. However, this explanation fails to address underlying systemic issues.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration indicates that Iran earned $144 billion (€138.5 billion) in oil revenues during the first three years of US President Joe Biden's administration.
Arezoo Karimi, a journalist focusing on Iran's economy for IranWire, argues that despite the significant revenue generated by oil exports, much of it has been diverted to fund Tehran's geopolitical priorities, including supporting its regional allies like the Bashar Assad regime in Syria....
"Iran has reportedly spent over $25 billion on Syria, primarily through oil support," she added. "This pattern of prioritizing regional alliances over infrastructure investment has left Iran's energy sector in dire need of modernization."
The article also mentions "soaring gasoline consumption." Which sounds to me like Venezuela lite: dirt-cheap gasoline for the masses, to keep them happy. A lot of Venezuelan gasoline is smuggled out of the country. Yes, the army gets a cut.
Iran's new president signals risky move to raise gasoline prices (Aug 28,2024)
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has criticized the lack of logic in importing gasoline at high market prices only to sell it domestically at much lower, heavily subsidized rates.
Iran has struggled with a growing gasoline deficit since 2022, importing at least 1.5 billion liters (396 million gallons) of gasoline during the last fiscal year, which ended on March 20, according to an official Oil Ministry document obtained by Iran International.
Officials report that the gasoline deficit has worsened this year. Additionally, Iran is grappling with the daily smuggling of 5 million liters (1.32 m gallons) of gasoline to neighboring countries, because of the cheap subsidized price.
Note that according to the article, Iran imports 1.5 billion liters of gasoline a year, while 1.8 billion liters a year (365X5 million) are smuggled out.
Yes, dirt-cheap gasoline:
However, President Masoud Pezeshkian estimated the annual import cost at $8 billion annually during an interview last month. Currently, the Free on Board (FOB) price of gasoline in the Persian Gulf exceeds 55 cents per liter, while Iran sells rationed gasoline (60 liters per month per vehicle) at just 15,000 rials (2.5 cents) per liter, and non-rationed gasoline at 5 cents a liter.
Say no more.
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