One thing he says that I found surprising is that he views the US economy as strong.
For now, the United States would seem to be in a strong position vis-à-vis both China and Russia. Above all, the U.S. economy is doing well. Business investment in new manufacturing facilities, some of it subsidized by new government infrastructure and technology programs, is booming. New investments by both government and business in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, and bioengineering promise to widen the technological and economic gap between the United States and every other country for years to come.
Since this is mostly a piece about competition with China and Russia, I suppose it's fair to view the US economy as strong-by-comparison. Both of those states are having substantial economic troubles at the moment. The US economy is not "doing well" from the perspective of ordinary people: but he's not talking to ordinary people, or with them, he's talking to other elites for whom all that may matter is relative strength.
His list of problems that we face embraces the establishment Republican criticisms of our politics: he lists "political dysfunction," "runaway spending," failure to reform Social Security and Medicare, President Trump's tenure, the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, diplomatic failures, a bad military appropriations process from Congress, and several more.
Likewise, his list of solutions will be unsurprising: more military spending, more international trade agreements, and "a constant drumbeat" of persuasion to convince the American people that this foreign policy stuff is more important than their own concerns at home. Americans should sacrifice to maintain "leadership," meaning of course his leadership: his and those like him, his class, his kind.
At no point do I see an appreciation for the problems Americans themselves face, or any sense that their concerns should be addressed except by "doing a better job of explaining" the importance of doing things his way. This is of course why the establishment is faring so badly in the current moment: their elites are interested in being elites first, Democrats or Republicans second, and Americans third at most.
4 comments:
He's not necessarily wrong about our long-term economic outlook, even from a commoners viewpoint. As Peter Zeihan likes to put it, the US has a geographic profile (The US Midwest is the largest arable land mass in the world overlaid by the largest navigable river system. We have oceans and mountains on both coasts, frozen tundra to the north, and oceans and deserts to the south) that even decades of effort hasn't been able to screw up. We can be largely self-sufficient in energy, food, and industrial materials (if we chose to be), have nearby sources of cheap labor and consumption (Mexico, the Caribbean, South America) with easily defensible trade routes. Both China and Russia are in much tougher neighborhoods with serious demographic issues facing them, and their access to foreign markets has always been at the mercy of US willingness to safeguard global trade. We are in a decent position to ride out the coming deglobalization wave. They are not.
Our most significant problem is, as you do point out, that our leadership largely regards itself as above safeguarding US interests.
“We are in a decent position to ride out the coming deglobalization wave. They are not. Our most significant problem is, as you do point out, that our leadership largely regards itself as above safeguarding US interests.”
One might rephrase that, Christopher, as “Who is this ‘we’?”
In my part of the country, the rising cost of fertilizer and fuel means lower crop yields and higher costs for food and fiber. ("Organic fertilizer" even when applied using the best techniques, is only about 1/3 as productive as chemical fertilizers.) The drought has eased, so that helps ranchers, but not if they have to pay more to transport and finish cattle. Other parts of the economy are tourism related, which suffers as gas prices rise and people don't spend on luxuries like travel. Inflation's not helping.
"We" out here are bracing for a rough winter. Especially since electricity and natural gas (light and heating) are getting more variable thanks to the green energy demands from other parts of the country and the US government. Rolling blackouts would not surprise me, even though there is a large power plant here in town. Not worrying about foreign supply lines is less of a concern than choked domestic supplies of things.
LittleRed1
Well, Christopher, there's a big difference between potential and actuality. I suspect a lot of that economic potential will be exploited to enrich a very small subset of Americans and global corporations that may very well shift that capital to other places where labor is much cheaper.
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