Statistical Lies

Drudge has two great stories today that turn on the same deceptive use of statistics.

Annual Global Index Rates U.S. 128th Most Peaceful Nation on Earth
Of nine global regions, Europe emerged as the most peaceful, followed by North America and the Asia-Pacific region. The Middle East and Africa rated as the two least peaceful regions.

And there is a growing trouble spot much closer to home for Americans.

“Central America and the Caribbean had the largest deterioration, especially in safety and security due to widespread crime and political instability,” the research said.
It's More Dangerous to Live in America than Travel Abroad
After traffic accidents, the second-most-common cause of death was homicides. But to put the 132 Americans who died this way in 2018 into perspective, Chicago alone had 561 homicides that year.
So the truth is that the United States has a near-zero homicide rate, if you except certain neighborhoods in certain cities. However, if you read the whole nation as a unit, it looks like the USA has homicide rates very similar to Central America -- which is exactly what you'd expect, since the instability in those countries is pouring over our border and into our cities.

Is it safer to travel abroad than to stay at home if you live in the 54% of American counties with zero murders a year? That changes the picture a bit, doesn't it?

Is the United States the 128th most dangerous country if you live in that majority of counties (which make up the VAST majority of land area)? No, it's one of the safest nations on earth, exactly in line with the nicest places you could find.

So how scared should you be about being murdered? Well, it depends; but if you're worried, you should really be worried chiefly about immigration. Otherwise, it's the easiest thing in the world to move out of the 2% of counties that cause 51% of the problem.

3 comments:

Texan99 said...

Clearly what we need is the equivalent of school bussing, something to make all the un-woke Americans personally experience the woes of the 2% of counties causing 51% of the problem. But make them do it unarmed, of course, because otherwise it wouldn't be sporting.

Gringo said...

From the CDC, via Reason. African Americans Are Eight Times More Likely to Be Victims of Homicide Than Whites, Says CDC.
In 2015, homicide rates were 5.7 deaths per 100,000 for the total population, 20.9 for non-Hispanic blacks, 4.9 for Hispanics, and 2.6 for non-Hispanic whites.


Wiki:List of countries by intentional homicide rate lists the murder rate for Europe as 3.0/100,000- greater than the murder rate for white Americans (2.6). That would be all the 40 or so countries in Europe.

Yes, Chicago is more dangerous than Europe. But Chicago is more dangerous than most places in the US.

ymarsakar said...

What's really dangerous are Americans who have woken up to the fact that there are traitors in the country and that they need killing.

Then there's a problem. Not that this problem hadn't been around for a long time while being ignored due to the "good times".