The State | 10/30/2004 | On election results, it�s still the economy

Labor Memo:

You've probably heard about the Labor Dept. Memo predicting a sure Bush win. It says that 'nearly every model' shows Bush carrying the election by much larger margins than the polls show.

"What models?" you might reasonably ask. After all, everything we've seen in the press indicates a very tight race.

Well, here's a primer on some of them. Here is another. CNN had some back in August. here is one from Yale. And here are some based on political science rather than economic theory.

Most of these predict a sizable Bush victory, between 54 and 60 percent.

Are they accurate? Eh, who knows? :) But the smart money for a gambler is on Bush.

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