Blues states and black jail rates

In order of the greatest in-state discrepancy in incarceration rates by state:


Eric Blair said...

That graph doesn't seem to say what you say it is saying.

Texan99 said...

What do you think I say it's saying? It's just the states in order of the lowest to greatest variance between white and black incarceration rates in that particular state (middle row of middle section). It seems to me that red states, especially Southern ones, are more heavily represented at the low end and blue states at the high end.

Some surprising numbers in there: what's going on with imprisonment of Hispanics in Mississippi and West Virginia? I'm guessing the Hispanic population is not huge in either state, but a surprisingly high proportion of them are fresh off the plane from Columbia and deep into the drug trade. On the other hand, in Hawaii, Nevada, Maryland, and Virginia, it makes almost no difference to your chances of jail whether you're white or Hispanic.

Also, Minnesota doesn't seem to be a happy place to be for Native Americans.

Gringo said...

I wonder why Raven didn't reply to my previous posting, but thank you, Texan99, for your reply.

Those results are not what the conventional narrative claims, are they?

From my previous posting:
Consider the hypothetical state with 10% blacks in its population and blacks comprising 25% of its prison population. Let us create a
"disproportionate incarceration index" defined by % blacks in prison population divided by % blacks in main population. So, this hypothetical state will have a "disproportionate incarceration index" of 2.5.

Here are some actual "disproportionate incarceration indexes" for some actual states- but this time with the states added.
1.54 Mississippi
2.59 Tennessee
2.67 Texas
3.31 New York
3.71 Massachusetts
4.1 Connecticut
4.5 California
Gotten from "Blacks are overrepresented in___prisons and jails, such as blacks being 6% of California's population but 27% of its prison population.

Texan99, where did you get that page?

I came across this information awhile ago, and forget the explanations, but IIRC they went something like this. Red states tend to be more hard-nosed in imprisoning people, which tends to get more whites. Or, blue states tend to have better behaving whites than red states.

Massachusetts incarceration rates by ethnicity

White 241/100,000
Black 1502/100,000

Mississippi incarceration rates by ethnicity

White 600/100,000
Black 1788/100,000

The big difference between Mississippi and Massachusetts isn't in black incarceration rates, but in white incarceration rates.

On and on...

Grim said...

Raven will get back to you, I don't doubt. It's a holiday. Give a man a minute.

Georgia does well. Good to know.

Texan99 said...

The chart is something I generated in excel using the numbers in the linked site.

Assistant Village Idiot said...

Just to keep everyone clear, nearly half of NH's prison population actually comes from Massachusetts. North of Boston the rough towns shade up through Lynn, Lawrence, Lowell, Methuen, etc up to the NH border. They deliver our drugs to us, rob our small businesses, and have a bit of jostling for territory on our side of the line, which sometimes involves shooting. These are not entirely hispanic, but dominantly so, and include more blacks than occur in NH's general population because - well, because it would be difficult to have fewer. They do take apartments in Manchester and Nashua for short periods, and some do eventually become permanent.

Additionally, the population increases by about 10% in the summer because of second homes, mostly on lakes. Low rates of violent crime in that crew.

I don't know how that bends your numbers, but it is going to make it look like we incarcerate a much larger proportion of our black and hispanic population than we actually do. I'm betting if that could factor in, NH would move to somewhere in the teens on this list.

Eric Blair said...

Like I said, I don't think it is showing what you say it is showing, because it basically just a bunch of percentages. I'd rather just see raw numbers. That might be interesting.

It's like that "97% of scientists agree about global warming" thing. Doesn't really tell you anything.

Texan99 said...

There is a linked source.