Because sometimes I have more time than good sense.
There is growing chatter that President Joe Biden (D) will be out as President by November, whether by resignation or by 25th Amendment action. Say that occurs, at some time in the next year or two.
Who would a President Kamala Harris (D) get for her Vice President?
There would no longer be a way to break a tie in the vote to confirm, so at least one Republican would have to agree with the Progressive-Democrats on any nominee, or at least one Progressive-Democrat would have to agree with the Republicans.
Who could make it through that gauntlet that Harris would be likely to nominate?
Or would she finish out the term without a Vice President? In which case no other tie vote could be broken for the duration of that term.
That last would seem a fine motive for the Republicans en masse to Just Say No to any Harris nomination (running the political risks thereof), thereby blocking all further Progressive-Democrat moves until at least 2025 (for the potential political rewards).
Eric Hines
15 comments:
Perhaps the Republicans can refuse to confirm a VP until after the 2022 mid-terms. If they then hold a majority of the Senate, the VP doesn't matter in that regard; if the Democrats then hold a majority of the Senate, ditto. If the Senate is still split, re-assess.
A downside to not confirming a new VP is that Nancy Pelosi is next in line.
(I'm not convinced President Biden will be gone any time soon. Some of the chatter I've read is that this comes down to a power struggle between Kamala Harris and Jill Biden - and Jill Biden is the likely victor.)
That would be very interesting. I'd kinda like to see that happen just because it would be something new, but blocking a lot of Dem legislation would be a much better reason to hope for that result.
The Republicans would actually have double the monkey-wrench potential. By the 25th, the VP has to pass BOTH House and Senate.
Section 2.
Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
I mostly agree with Elise. In addition to Harris being a disaster, I think even she's got enough desire for political self-preservation to not want to be leading the Democrats into 2022. She can still serve two full terms if she doesn't take over before February 2023. I will not be surprised if Biden is still atop the ticket in 2024, provided he survives that long.
Who would want her? Any Democrat, I guess. Any of the majority of American voters who supposedly cast a ballot to put that ticket into office, preferring it to the Trump ticket. It's not like her presence on the ballot was a secret.
Perhaps the Republicans can refuse to confirm a VP until after the 2022 mid-terms.
Yeah, I am betting on a Republican majority in the Senate from the 2022 mid-terms, which would let them continue to block a Harris VP nominee. And, yes, I'd still want any Harris nominee blocked, even with Pelosi as next in line.
On the other hand, if Republicans do regain a Senate majority, they're likely also to regain a House majority, in which case Pelosi becomes a non-entity, and McCarthy the likely Speaker and 3rd (or 2nd) in line.
Regarding the 4th clause of the 25th Amendment:
4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
It would be interesting, were the 25th invoked against Biden, to see how things play out in DC and in public perception were a bare majority (say, by a margin of 1 vote) of the principle officers or "such other body" to vote for sidelining Biden, and Harris were to cast her vote in favor of sidelining. After all, the VP has the only vote that counts in this context (at least according to the loose consensus that sort of coalesced when discussions of using the 25th Amendment on Trump came up).
Eric Hines
Yes, things could get interesting if the GOP actually worked up the gumption to go at Biden using the 25th or impeachment, though I think the later is more likely. The issue would be that 'such other body' doesn't exist at this time, and probably couldn't be created with Biden in place unless a two-thirds of both Houses think he needs to go.
I do not think there is any chance of Senate Republicans holding the line to refuse to confirm a VP. Only one defector would be needed. Several are available.
If it comes to the 25th being invoked and applied, I would look outside Congress for a nominee. If the (D) party takes the route they did with Harris, I'd guess Buttigig, Castro, or another minority male not from CA. I'm not sure that VP Harris would tolerate another ambitious woman. (I'm not going to speculate on the midterm elections. There's just too much smog in my crystal ball, and my Magic 8-Ball keeps saying "all circuits busy, try again later.")
LittleRed1
Granting that Biden is out and Harris is in by year-end....
By that time, the election-audits of at least 1 or 2 States will be in, and serious "irregularities" in 2-3 more States will be publicized.
There will be no credibility remaining in the Presidency, nor in the Senate. So in a way, it won't make any difference who Harris nominates or gets through the approval process.
Nobody will care what he/she is or does.
It won't happen, but think of the entertainment value of Joe Manchin being the VP in a Hail Mary attempt to keep the last few percent of moderate or even conservative Democrats in the tent. A million Democrats living in their parents' basement would volunteer to be personal bodyguards to Kamala the next day, certain that white supremacists would all want to assassinate her. Just like they did Obama. (Remember him? That black president who served for about a week before the white supremacists, with assistance from all the systemic racists in the Secret Service, CIA, FBI, and NSA, assassinated him in 2009?)
The Washington Post and NYT would have no conventional wisdom and be consumed by internecine struggles. Google, Facebook, Twitter, Wikipedia, et alia would have internal wars that were based on entirely different power games. It would be a great struggle to read about in history, or watch happening on some other planet.
Unfortunately, we have to live here.
Dad29: Nobody will care what he/she is or does.
Well, except for all of the people who work for the executive branch. They have a bit of power, I hear.
...I'd guess Buttigig, Castro, or another minority male not from CA.
Why exclude California? It may be that Gavin Newsom will be available.
Well, except for all of the people who work for the executive branch. They have a bit of power, I hear.
Including the Harris Woke FBI.
Eric Hines
Harris is from CA, and the Constitution prohibits both the President and Vice President from coming from the same State.
My vote is for Buttigig, a nice, conservative Midwestern Hoosier. (sarc)
In any case, the opportunity for muy entertainment is to die for.
There is definitely motive to do this before 2023, now that I think of it, in case the House is lost in 2022. They might wait until the lame duck session to try to give K a chance at 2.5 terms, but otherwise they risk a Speaker of the House assuming the office who is not of their choosing.
Harris favorability:
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1420477341571198977?s=20
Overall: 43/48
White men no college: 25/66
White men w/ college: 37/59
White women no college: 38/52
White women w/ college: 49/47
Black: 65/21
Hispanics: 53/35
Dems: 85/10
GOP: 7/90
Indies: 34/58 (!!!!)
Post a Comment