Lent
Consensus II
The Opinion section of the Washington Post is up to 100% noncompliance and rejection of Bezos' guidance. I wonder if he can find a buyer for a newspaper whose authors refuse to accept editorial guidance from the owners? Maybe he can get pennies on the dollar for his investment from someone who is also in alignment with that viewpoint, and doesn't want it to change.
Consensus
I still don't have any idea, but lately there appears to have been a preference cascade. The talk of 80/20 issues may have been exaggerated, but suddenly a GOP that seemed unable to break though on any issue is garnering poll responses in the 60- and 70-percent range. Even last night's quasi-SOTU speech had an astounding impact. CBS, of all outlets, reports that with an audience composed of about half Republicans and half a mix of Democrats and Independents, President Trump won over 3/4 of his viewers. Results were similarly impressive on a range of hot-button issues from immigation to government waste to tariffs to the expulsion of Rep. Green from the chamber.
Grim's Red Seasoning
The Lord Is a Man of War
I don't plan to post systematically on God Is a Man of War, but as I find interesting things I may put them here. The beginning of the book refers to the following victory song, which is quite striking.
Exodus 15:1-18
Then Moses and the people of Israel sang this song to the Lord, saying,
“I will sing to the Lord, for he has triumphed gloriously;
the horse and his rider he has thrown into the sea.
The Lord is my strength and my song,
and he has become my salvation;
this is my God, and I will praise him,
my father’s God, and I will exalt him.
The Lord is a man of war;
the Lord is his name.
“Pharaoh’s chariots and his host he cast into the sea;
and his picked officers are sunk in the Red Sea.
The floods cover them;
they went down into the depths like a stone.
Thy right hand, O Lord, glorious in power,
thy right hand, O Lord, shatters the enemy.
In the greatness of thy majesty thou overthrowest thy adversaries;
thou sendest forth thy fury, it consumes them like stubble.
At the blast of thy nostrils the waters piled up,
the floods stood up in a heap;
the deeps congealed in the heart of the sea.
The enemy said, ‘I will pursue, I will overtake,
I will divide the spoil, my desire shall have its fill of them.
I will draw my sword, my hand shall destroy them.’
Thou didst blow with thy wind, the sea covered them;
they sank as lead in the mighty waters.
“Who is like thee, O Lord, among the gods?
Who is like thee, majestic in holiness,
terrible in glorious deeds, doing wonders?
Thou didst stretch out thy right hand,
the earth swallowed them.
“Thou hast led in thy steadfast love the people whom thou hast redeemed,
thou hast guided them by thy strength to thy holy abode.
The peoples have heard, they tremble;
pangs have seized on the inhabitants of Philistia.
Now are the chiefs of Edom dismayed;
the leaders of Moab, trembling seizes them;
all the inhabitants of Canaan have melted away.
Terror and dread fall upon them;
because of the greatness of thy arm, they are as still as a stone,
till thy people, O Lord, pass by,
till the people pass by whom thou hast purchased.
Thou wilt bring them in, and plant them on thy own mountain,
the place, O Lord, which thou hast made for thy abode,
the sanctuary, O Lord, which thy hands have established.
The Lord will reign for ever and ever.”
The themes of salvation of the slave and destruction of the army of the enslavers echo down the millennia, along with the theme of steadfast love for His people.
It is interesting here that God Himself destroys the Egyptian army. This sort of violence in the Old Testament never really bothered me. I feel sorry for Charioteer First Class Snuffy who was just trying to pay off his new personal hot rod chariot at the low low rate of 20% APR and have a few brews on the weekend with his army pay, but wiping out an army set on re-enslaving a people doesn't seem terribly unjust. I'm sure, though, my specific concerns will be addressed further on in the book.
Prayer and Fasting
The Sunday before Lent begins is Forgiveness Sunday in the Orthodox Church. It is a day to ask everyone for their forgiveness for any offenses we may have committed against them in the past year, and a day where we also forgive everyone who has offended against us.
Ramadan began March 1st, the Eastern Church's Great Lent begins tomorrow, and Western Lent begins Wednesday. It seems that a couple billion of us will all be fasting and praying for the next month, then some of us for a bit longer. It is always a blessing to me when Eastern Pascha and Western Easter fall on the same day. Since most Christians in the US belong to the Western churches, it puts me out of synch with my Western brothers and sisters when it doesn't.
For the East, the fast is from meat, fish, dairy, and alcohol, from tomorrow until Pascha. However, in the tradition of feast days which fall on fast days, alcohol is allowed on the Sabbath and Lord's Day each week. It was suggested in services today that we also fast from controversies this Lent, and that seems a particularly good addition this year.
I have decided to read two books during this season. Some of the violence in the Old Testament has troubled me for decades, so maybe Fr Stephen De Young's short God Is a Man of War: The Problem of Violence in the Old Testament will help me at least understand it. As I love poetry, I think poet and professor Donald Sheehan's The Shield of Psalmic Prayer: Reflections on Translating, Interpreting, and Praying the Psalter will be a good balancing influence after the study of ancient wars.
There is a great deal to pray for this year. In addition to America's attempt to renew itself, which is by no means guaranteed to succeed, there are the conflicts involving Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Gaza, and many other tribulations around the world that we don't hear as much of. And then there are our civic leaders and warriors and clergy and faithful, the sick, the old, the newborn, the catechumens, the lost, the travelers by sea and land and air, and personal prayers as well.
And so, in the short time before Great Lent begins, I ask all of you for your forgiveness for any offenses I may have committed against you this past year, and I ask your prayers for me, all of you who pray. I look forward to hearing about everyone's Lenten journey, all who care to share it.
And this, too
Ten bad takeaways from the Zelenskyy blow-up
1. Zelenskyy does not grasp—or deliberately ignores—the bitter truth: those with whom he feels most affinity (Western globalists, the American Left, the Europeans) have little power in 2025 to help him. And those with whom he obviously does not like or seeks to embarrass (cf. his Scranton, Penn. campaign-like visit in September 2024) alone have the power to save him. For his own sake, I hope he is not being “briefed” by the Obama-Clinton-Biden gang to confront Trump, given their interests are not really Ukraine’s as they feign.
2. Zelenskyy acts as if his agendas and ours are identical. So, he keeps insisting that he is fighting for us despite our two-ocean-distance that he mocks. We do have many shared interests with Ukraine, but not all by any means: Trump wants to “reset” with Russia and triangulate it against China. He seeks to avoid a 1962 DEFCON 2-like crisis over a proxy showdown in proximity to a nuclear rival. And he sincerely wants to end the deadlocked Stalingrad slaughterhouse for everyone’s sake.
3. The Europeans (and Canada) are now talking loudly of a new muscular antithesis, independent of the U.S. Promises, promises—given that would require Europeans to prune back their social welfare state, frack, use nuclear, stop the green obsessions, and spend 3-5 percent of their GDP on defense. The U.S. does not just pay 16 percent of NATO’s budget but also puts up with asymmetrical tariffs that result in a European Union trade surplus of $160 billion, plays the world cop patrolling sea-lanes and deterring terrorists and rogues states that otherwise might interrupt Europe’s commercial networks abroad, as well as de facto including Europe under a nuclear umbrella of 6,500 nukes.
4. Zelenskyy must know that all of the once deal-stopping issues to peace have been de facto settled: Ukraine is now better armed than most NATO nations, but will not be in NATO; and no president has or will ever supply Ukraine with the armed wherewithal to take back the Donbass and Crimea. So, the only two issues are a) how far will Putin be willing to withdraw to his 2022 borders and b) how will he be deterred? The first is answered by a commercial sector/tripwire, joint Ukrainian-US-Europe resource development corridor in Eastern Ukraine, coupled with a Korea-like DMZ; the second by the fact that Putin unlike his 2008 and 2014 invasions has now lost a million dead and wounded to a Ukraine that will remain thusly armed.
5. What are Zelenskyy’s alternatives without much U.S. help—wait for a return of the Democrats to the White House in four years? Hope for a rearmed Europe? Pray for a Democratic House and a 3rd Vindman-like engineered Trump impeachment? Or swallow his pride, return to the White House, sign the rare-earth minerals deal, invite in the Euros (are they seriously willing to patrol a DMZ?), and hope Trump can warn Putin, as he did successfully between 2017-21, not to dare try it again?
6. If there is a cease fire, a commercial deal, a Euro ground presence, and influx of Western companies into Ukraine, would there be elections? And if so, would Zelenskyy and his party win? And if not, would there be a successor transparent government that would reveal exactly where all the Western financial aid money went?
7. Zelenskyy might see a model in Netanyahu. The Biden Administration was far harder on him than Trump is on Ukraine: suspending arms shipments, demanding cease-fires, prodding for a wartime, bipartisan cabinet, hammering Israel on collateral damage—none of which Westerners have demanded of Zelenskyy. Yet Netanyahu managed a hostile Biden, kept Israel close to its patron, and when visiting was gracious to his host. Netanyahu certainly would never before the global media have interrupted, and berated a host and patron president in the White House.
8. If Ukraine has alienated the U.S. what then is its strategic victory plan? Wait around for more Euros? Hold off an increasingly invigorated Russian military? Cede more territory? What, then, exactly are Zelenskyy’s cards he seems to think are a winning hand?
9. If one views carefully all the 50-minute tape, most of it was going quite well—until Zelenskyy started correcting Vance firstly, and Trump secondly. By Ukraine-splaining to his hosts, and by his gestures, tone, and interruptions, he made it clear that he assumed that Trump was just more of the same compliant, clueless moneybags Biden waxen effigy. And that was naïve for such a supposedly worldly leader.
10. March 2025 is not March 2022, after the heroic saving of Kyiv—but three years and 1.5 million dead and wounded later. Zelenskyy is no longer the international heartthrob with the glamorous entourage. He has postponed elections, outlawed opposition media and parties, suspended habeas corpus and walked out of negotiations when he had an even hand in Spring 2022 and apparently even now when he does not in Spring 2025.
Quo vadis, Volodymyr?
That's about it
Overnight, the discussion has shifted from "Trump ambushed Zelensky" to "Yeah, Zelensky was rude, but so what?" Progress, I guess.
But that still misses the point. Zelensky's interjection to make clear he has no intention of negotiating a ceasefire is what blew up the deal.I don't want to see Ukrained overrun, but if Zelenskyy won't negotiate a ceasefire that calls for Russia keeping the eastern territories and Crimea, then I guess he'd better roll the dice with whatever virtue-signaling European or Europhile countries are willing to get serious with money and men.
Anabasis XX: Diplomacy
After this, whilst waiting, they lived partly on supplies from the market, partly on the fruit of raids into Paphlagonia. The Paphlagonians, on their side, showed much skill in kidnapping stragglers, wherever they could lay hands on them, and in the night time tried to do mischief to those whose quarters were at a distance from the camp. The result was that their relations to one another were exceedingly hostile, so much so that Corylas, who was the chief of Paphlagonia at that date, sent ambassadors to the Hellenes, bearing horses and fine apparel, and charged with a proposal on the part of Corylas to make terms with the Hellenes on the principle of mutual forbearance from injuries. The generals replied that they would consult with the army about the matter.
[T]hey gave them a hospitable reception, to which they invited certain members of the army whose claims were obvious. They sacrificed some of the captive cattle and other sacrificial beasts, and with these they furnished forth a sufficiently festal entertainment, and reclining on their truckle beds, fell to eating and drinking out of beakers made of horn which they happened to find in the country.But as soon as the libation was ended and they had sung the hymn, up got first some Thracians, who performed a dance under arms to the sound of a pipe, leaping high into the air with much nimbleness, and brandishing their swords [in a theatrical dance common to that country]...After this some Aenianians and Magnesians got up and fell to dancing the Carpaea, as it is called, under arms. This was the manner of the dance: one man lays aside his arms and proceeds to drive a yoke of oxen, and while he drives he sows, turning him about frequently, as though he were afraid of something; up comes a cattle-lifter, and no sooner does the ploughman catch sight of him afar, than he snatches up his arms and confronts him. They fight in front of his team, and all in rhythm to the sound of the pipe. At last the robber binds the countryman and drives off the team. Or sometimes the cattle-driver binds the robber, and then he puts him under the yoke beside the oxen, with his two hands tied behind his back, and off he drives....After this a Mysian came in with a light shield in either hand and danced, at one time going through a pantomime, as if he were dealing with two assailants at once; at another plying his shields as if to face a single foe, and then again he would whirl about and throw somersaults, keeping the shields in his hands, so that it was a beautiful spectacle. Last of all he danced the Persian dance, clashing the shields together, crouching down on one knee and springing up again from earth; and all this he did in measured time to the sound of the flute. After him the Mantineans stepped upon the stage, and some other Arcadians also stood up; they had accoutred themselves in all their warlike finery. They marched with measured tread, pipes playing, to the tune of the 'warrior's march'; the notes of the paean rose, lightly their limbs moved in dance, as in solemn procession to the holy gods. The Paphlagonians looked upon it as something truly strange that all these dances should be under arms; and the Mysians, seeing their astonishment persuaded one of the Arcadians who had got a dancing girl to let him introduce her, which he did after dressing her up magnificently and giving her a light shield. When, lithe of limb, she danced the Pyrrhic, loud clapping followed; and the Paphlagonians asked, "If these women fought by their side in battle?" to which they answered, "To be sure, it was the women who routed the great King, and drove him out of camp." So ended the night.
The next day the army accepts the peace proposal, and the embassy returns home. The Ten Thousand remain there until they feel that enough ships have been gathered, and then they take to the sea to sail away from this country (probably to the vast relief of the inhabitants). They sail to Sinope, which receives them with gifts especially of food, that being the clear lesson on how to make and keep peace with the army.
I-40 to Reopen Tomorrow
A Pro-Trump Washington Post Opinion?
Whitehouse Road (with Sturgill Simpson)
Anabasis XIX
Revival
Upper Bearwallow Falls
Aid Exceptions
Fifteen years ago when I was in the Southern Philippines, USAID had just built a water treatment plant for a local community on one of the islands where some Islamist groups were trying to recruit. (Abu Sayyaf was the more problematic one, but also Jemaah Islamiyah and the local crew, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or 'MILF' as they amusingly chose to be called.) They also funded the local schools and, importantly, provided the textbooks to those schools -- textbooks that described the American influence otherwise than as a Great Satan, but pointed out helpful things that came to everyone in the area from the relationship.They had relationships throughout the limited local government even in that remote corner of the world. They knew people who could get things done. And, most likely, they provided a cover for clandestine operations and officers as necessary to target the radical Islamist groups using the area.