Missing Voters

The election appears to have turned on millions of voters who voted Republican in 2008 staying home this time around. The change was especially noteworthy in Ohio among rural whites:
...we find ourselves with about 8 million fewer white voters than we would expect given turnout in the 2008 elections and population growth....

Where things drop off are in the rural portions of Ohio, especially in the southeast. These represent areas still hard-hit by the recession. Unemployment is high there, and the area has seen almost no growth in recent years.

My sense is these voters were unhappy with Obama. But his negative ad campaign relentlessly emphasizing Romney’s wealth and tenure at Bain Capital may have turned them off to the Republican nominee as well.
That is certainly possible. I know Ohio was blanketed with vicious, negative ads all summer and fall. We all saw them once or twice online, but Ohio voters must have seen them day and night for months on end. The Republican primary may have had some effect as well.

My re-enactment group that we camped out with at the Highland Games includes a lot of rural, blue-collar whites. We had a political discussion one of the nights, and I got the sense that most of them weren't going to vote.

It wasn't because they were satisfied with their government. It was because they believed that Obama was evil, but the Republicans were corrupt, and the system was wholly rigged against them. They saw no benefit to voting or engaging in the political process at all.

They didn't believe things could be changed for the better, saw no one they identified with for whom they could vote, and generally have come to regard the government as a pack of thieves -- both parties.

So they have checked out of our political system. They wanted all the way out, but as close as they can get is to shut down the TV and radio, handle their business cash-only or on the internet, and just try not to be part of it all anymore.

9 comments:

Eric Blair said...

As much as people think they can check out, they cannot.

Like Orwell said: "You might not be interested in the war, but the war is interested in you."

It was always going to get worse before it got better, but now it is going to be even worse.

Grim said...

Yeah, I think that's right.

bthun said...

"It was because they believed that Obama was evil, but the Republicans were corrupt, and the system was wholly rigged against them. "

I certainly understand the sentiment, but I guess I'm too much of a hard-head to quit trying, via pestering the pols with letters/emails and on occasion a contribution.

"It was always going to get worse before it got better, but now it is going to be even worse. "

For some, it would seem, a persistent heapin' helpin' of pain will be necessary to adjust their focus. I think most of us have always known that, but I'll confess that I never imagined there could be so many.

Teh Suc is we're all in the same boat.

P.S. I think I heard Herman Cain on the radio this am talking about a third party.

Miss Ladybug said...

I'll wait until they completely finish counting the votes before putting a lot of stock in the analysis of the numbers.

William said...

I know quite a few folks that fall into that category. I, for an example, couldn't tell a real difference between the two. At least not as far as it will effect me and mine. Either way they are basically socialists that will be forced by congress into a path that will hurt us. The only questions were "How fast will it happen?" and "How bad/graceful will it be?". Either way... it won't be good and there's nothing I can do to have any impact on the processes that will happen. Vote? Yes, but... when given a choice between two of the same thing, there is no choice.

William sends.

douglas said...

Well, perhaps it was the failure of the ORCA get out the vote system and we're just over thinking it. Never ascribe to complicated ideas about demographics and communications that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

bthun said...

In my best Gabby Hayes voice I'll say, "Douglas, you said a mouthful."

Ymar Sakar said...

"It wasn't because they were satisfied with their government. It was because they believed that Obama was evil, but the Republicans were corrupt, and the system was wholly rigged against them. They saw no benefit to voting or engaging in the political process at all. "

That's because those beliefs were engineered almost entirely by the Left, even if Democrats benefit from it.

And it's true, in a sense. Because Democrats control much of the Republican party as well, given what we know about Sarah palin's campaign.

Civil war was inevitable in the US whether Obama got elected or not, cheated to win or not. People are just going to realize that it'll happen in their lifetimes, rather than their chldren's, given how things ended out now.

Grim said...

Well, better in my time than my children's.