The Ongoing Campaign

No votes are yet cast in this primary season, but political forecasters are becoming united on two predictions.

1)  Former governor Romney has almost locked up the establishment Republican party, and is therefore the presumptive nominee.

2)  The only people who seem not to get this are the voters, who will simply have to adjust to reality.

It's certainly true that Romney has taken a very different approach to the election than, say, Herman Cain.  Romney has spent a tremendous amount of effort on fundraising, lining up endorsements, and swinging the political establishment into his corner.  He's hardly said a word to us, though -- aside from appearing in the debates, he's not really talking to the American people.  I don't even know why he wants to be President.  I just know that he's wanted it for a long, long time -- long enough to have endorsed the then-popular opposites of every position he seems to be advocating this time.  

Herman Cain was on the local radio show the other day.  He was laughing, joking with the host, talking about his plans and why I ought to want to vote for him.  He's taking a month off from what is usually called 'the campaign trail' -- that is, doing what Romney is doing -- to promote his book on running for President.  This will include traveling to bookstores around the country, meeting people and shaking their hands in person, and asking them to consider his case and give him their vote.

Is that because we've grown so large as a democracy that you really can't win by talking to people, shaking their hand, and asking for their vote?  I wonder what the consequences of that must be.


douglas said...

I believe it's now 'talking to people, shaking their hand, and asking for their money' that gets you elected.

Certainly the consequences have not been good. Perhaps the last election and the next will do something about that.

douglas said...

Actually, that should read- 'talking to the right people...'

Dad29 said...

Cain will be just fine--despite Rove's not-subtle dismissal of him.

Romney will never get above 30%.

Watch Perry coming hard from the rear.

dellbabe68 said...

I think Perry is keeping the powder dry and making himself less of a target for the time being. At least I hope so. This New Yorker likes his America-first instincts.

Watch for the press saying thing like "surprising surge from behind; defies conventional wisdom; made quite a comeback" sometime soon about the candidates.

E Hines said...

I think a lot depends on the staying power of the Silent Majority that seems to have morphed into the Tea Parties, together with the newer modern Conservatives. These swung the 2010 primaries and elections from the grass roots despite (and sometimes in defiance of) the established party organs.

We'll need to stay active for election cycles and for generations; IFF we do, the Republic will be fine.

Eric Hines

Anonymous said...

Romney left me cold when people started saying that he "deserved" the presidency and that it was "his turn." I agree with the company that the pundits may well be surprised come next spring. I hope so. I would like to vote for Cain or Perry next November, given what I've read and heard from them.

For that matter a Cain/ Perry ticket could be fun. Cain/ Palin would be even more fun, or Cain/ Rice. She has foreign policy experience and watching the Usual Suspects trying to explain how voting for that combination is "racist" would be most entertaining.


Tom said...

As part of his book tour, Cain is hitting Memphis and Nashville. This is seen as odd because these aren't strategic areas at the moment. However, recently Cain's new communications guy said Cain has a lot of support in the country music community. Maybe this is about fund raising as well as talking to people.

Dad29 said...

Rumsfeld was very hard on Rice in his book. Say what you like about Rummy, but Condi has problems with 'non-intervention.'

Resurrecting Pella said...

I REALLY hope that Cain can hang in there, but I'm not hopeful. It seems like the establishment always wins out in the end. For instance, I supported businessman Steve Tarvin in the 9th district congressional election back in 2010, but the career politicians won out there as well. We have no one to blame except ourselves, though. The mindless masses tend to vote with very little information -- only what they glean from the nightly news or comedy shows, and they are an integral part of the existing establishment.

BTW: Great (funny) video on how Herman needs to be more "authentically black"

Anonymous said...

Romney will NEVER get more than 25 or 30 percent. The support he's getting from the GOP establishment only solidifies the resentment of the 70% who oppose him.

As usual "conventional wisdom" is 180 degrees off. If NH and Iowa run early it will hurt Romney not help him. The voters are in no mood to be pushed around by the jerks who got us into this mess.

Like Dad26 & DelBabe I still think Perry's the guy. He's got more money on hand than even Romney. He's what they call a "retail politician". He connects best face to face, pressing the flesh. Your standing at the end of Exhibition Season doesn't mean a hill of beans.*

Someone asked me what I thought Perry's strategy was in the debates, my answer, Rope a Dope. I'm sure it wasn't planned that way but it could work going forward.

*Hill of beans comes from the MesoAmerican indian use of cacao beans as money.

Mark said...

Hey, let's elect a TV clown.