The President's Statement on Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan is currently complete collapse, but we are about to insert five thousand Marines and Paratroopers to try to restore control over the airport. At that point we will be facing a situation worse than Saigon in 1975, and potentially as bad as Xenophon's Anabasis (should there not be enough jet fuel at the Kabul airport to manage the evacuation, and resupply proves unrealistic, and the brigade or so of American forces thus have to evacuate overland) or Teutoburg Forest (should the Taliban manage to overrun and destroy our forces, which is unlikely given that these are regular forces with air support -- but also not impossible). 

This is an inexcusable disaster brought on by a complete failure of military leadership and the intelligence community, but also by the civilian leadership's failure to take it seriously or to hold their bureaucracies' feet to the fire on honest information. 

Indeed, the President issued a statement yesterday that has already been completely passed over by reality.
First, based on the recommendations of our diplomatic, military, and intelligence teams, I have authorized the deployment of approximately 5,000 U.S. troops to make sure we can have an orderly and safe drawdown of U.S. personnel and other allied personnel, and an orderly and safe evacuation of Afghans who helped our troops during our mission and those at special risk from the Taliban advance.

It is too late to help anyone at risk from the Taliban advance. They've taken the presidential palace and the US embassy in Kabul.

Second, I have ordered our Armed Forces and our Intelligence Community to ensure that we will maintain the capability and the vigilance to address future terrorist threats from Afghanistan.

Too late. We will have no foothold in Afghanistan, or near Afghanistan, from which to maintain the vigilance that might underwrite any capacity to act against terrorist threats there. 

Third, I have directed the Secretary of State to support President Ghani and other Afghan leaders as they seek to prevent further bloodshed and pursue a political settlement. Secretary Blinken will also engage with key regional stakeholders.

Ghani fled the country this morning.

Fourth, we have conveyed to the Taliban representatives in Doha, via our Combatant Commander, that any action on their part on the ground in Afghanistan, that puts U.S. personnel or our mission at risk there, will be met with a swift and strong U.S. military response.

They appear completely unconcerned about that, having taken Kabul in spite of these threats.

Fifth, I have placed Ambassador Tracey Jacobson in charge of a whole-of-government effort to process, transport, and relocate Afghan Special Immigrant Visa applicants and other Afghan allies. Our hearts go out to the brave Afghan men and women who are now at risk. We are working to evacuate thousands of those who helped our cause and their families.

You'll be lucky to evacuate your embassy employees and the Marines and Paratroopers you're deploying. If you fail at that, there will be female State Department employees turned into Taliban wives and we will lose thousands of the best men remaining in American life. 

That is what we are going to do. Now let me be clear about how we got here.

You can read that if you want, but it's not worth the candle. He isn't clear; and he thinks it's everyone else's fault. 

UPDATE: The top American diplomatic official, the Charge d'Affaires, has been evacuated. We did not have an ambassador because the Biden administration never bothered to nominate one. 

7 comments:

  1. Our government's and senior military management's performance is all too reminiscent of the French political and senior military management's performance in the face of Nazi Germany's blitz into that nation.

    Eric Hines

    ReplyDelete
  2. I used to speculate that exactly this--a collapse that traps our forces in the back of beyond--might be the end result of a complete lack of coherent strategy. A lot of people thought I was too pessimistic, or lacked patriotism--the way (usually) different people reacted when I didn't rush to get the vaccine.

    ReplyDelete
  3. raven3:31 PM

    Right now, I would put money the Taliban are looking for the highest value/profile American hostages they can find, to deter air support.
    And aggregating every piece of AA equipment they can find to Kabul.
    And ranging every mortar and artillery piece they have on the airfield.
    As you pointed out, the airfield is THE lifeline.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I read that during the 1993 flood, water managers used their water-flow algorithms to control the upstream flooding near cities by opening spill-gates to full to drain the area faster.

    The problem was that the dams were already overtopped. Their plans didn't account for that.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes, it's similar. Our systems are so ossified they are incapable of learning, changing, adapting, even thinking new thoughts. Even 24 hours ago, after watching their '18 months' to Taliban conquest drain to '9 months' to '72 hours,' this five point plan was what made sense to them. They could not even think of a world like the one they really live in.

    ReplyDelete
  6. As someone tweeted today, if the Taliban doesn't watch out, we'll pressure Twitter to remove their account.

    What a pathetic display in the official statements.

    ReplyDelete