Socialist Francesca Hong was heavily favored to win the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary Tuesday in betting odds and among politicos, but the few polls taken proved unreliable in a primary with several major last-minute developments that changed the dynamics in the race.
What were these dynamics? The changing roster of opponents in a crowded field, perhaps. The guy who won had actually dropped out of the race, then re-entered suddenly in spite of having never had any support.
Also, her anti-Thanksgiving posts had a news cycle right before the election.
Still, the guy who won had never reached more than half her numbers.
Perhaps this is 'changing dynamics.' Or perhaps it's the same dynamic we keep seeing in numerous other places; the recent race in LA for mayor comes to mind. A certain "F" shaped curve in 2020's election. There does seem to be an intelligible signal in all this noise.
UPDATE: Hot Air identifies these and more evidences of this signal.
Look, Hong is a crazy, but she's their crazy. If they'll cheat her they'll cheat you. Stand up for the crazy lady. It's important.
Flash drives and fumbling? That could be part of it, but Crowley won 52 of 72 counties, which would demand a lot of fiddling in a lot of places. Milwaukee would be easy -- lots of concentrated votes there -- but 52 counties ...
ReplyDeleteLike I said, there's a lot of noise. But it seems a signal keeps creeping through. Like in Michigan:
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/KevinKijewski/status/2087852021789380709