Talk Loudly & Carry a Big Stick

 Apparently the big stick is really the key to this whole thing.

Frankly Israel deserves a lot more credit than anyone, if this holds. Credit is due chiefly to their decapitation massacre of the Iranian regime, their secret drone base that took out many air defenses, their airstrikes that cleaned up the rest, their assassination program that proved so intimidating. Of course it was chiefly their fight, so it's perfectly fitting that they did the heavy lifting. Still, they deserve credit for carrying that weight and for doing so effectively. 

Yet the big stick on Fordow seems to have broken Iranian resistance. They lost the only thing left worth fighting for except their survival, which is apparently theirs to be had for the simple price of surrendering after a token, face-saving reprisal strike.

Before we committed, I wrote this:

Thus I suspect that, dissembling aside, Trump intends to issue the order.... Trump [reportedly] asked Israel not to assassinate the Ayatollah Khamenei. The reasoning given in the brief quote aside, a better reason to leave him alive is that he is the only one who can plausibly negotiate a surrender. You have to leave someone alive that the losing side recognizes as their legitimate leader if you are to have any hope of getting them to accept the legitimacy of the order to lay down arms. 

With the air defenses already effectively destroyed, a US air campaign will face relatively easy sailing. I would expect the Fordow strike to be done in more than sufficient force to leave it obviously and permanently destroyed. The psychological effect of having that fortress reduced to ash in one night might compel the aging Ayatollah to consider surrender, especially if more generous terms than "unconditional" are truly on offer behind the scenes. 

I feel pretty good about that prediction. All the same, as I noted just a bit below, Trump fooled me too on the timing: I thought he'd wait for the three carriers to be on station before sending the B-2s. He didn't; and he also didn't launch from Diego Garcia, which was a whole lot closer, perhaps to preserve OPSEC. The British would have had to have known if we'd flown from there; flying from Kansas City, Missouri meant that nobody but Americans would have witnessed any preparations. 

We'll see if the peace holds, but if it does, a hard decision by the President may have spared the world a nuclear Iran. I understand why that was worth doing, though I hope very much that this is the end of the matter. It's a lot harder to stop the rolling stone than to start it. 

UPDATE: An aside: has any American President ever before said, "God bless Iran"?

UPDATE: The Iranian Foreign Minister denies, but admits, that there is a ceasefire that may lead to peace in another face-saving move.

"Until the very last minute, at 4am" is a concession that there's a ceasefire starting at 4 AM. 

That's ok. Face-saving is often crucial to de-escalation; making room for them to say yes on their own terms is fine. As long as we get to peace, with a de-nuclearized Iran to boot, it's a win.

UPDATE: Reports say there were some early ceasefire violations, but that's not necessarily important yet. Iran's chain of command is badly disrupted. Their foreign minister confirmed the ceasefire, but that doesn’t mean every line unit has received the orders. Disrupting their chain of command is one of the roads to victory, but it does have the side-effect that it can also make it harder to stop the fighting.