For some reason we got dramatically better at preventing coastal flood deaths just at the turn of the millenium. I can't think of a good explanation, especially for worldwide statistics. Otherwise climate risks look pretty steady.
I suspect this is a side-effect of increased urbanization in Bangladesh, which would have moved millions away from the very flood-prone fields and to factories in the cities.
I think this is primarily due to the improvements in modelling/tracking hurricanes, which allows for earlier and more correctly-targeted evacuations (even in the third world); with some additional assistance from improvements in detecting/tracking tsunamis (ditto). Most of the other weather events here are either (still) not predictable in an actionable length of time (tornadoes, etc.) or don't generally result in the kind of infrastructure damage that leads to evacuation orders (heat/cold waves).
My instinct is that this improvement is more to do with post-disaster-event sanitation, water-supply, and healthcare -- rather than e.g.: fewer people drowning or being killed by collapsing structures. That still leaves the question of "what changed?"
@Texan99, the big change in 2001 for hurricane forecasting was that NOAA began publishing "ensemble" predictions-- showing the different forecasts being produced by multiple models, run by multiple different entities (mostly universities) in addition to their own models. This allowed for an explicit acknowledgement that, with small changes in assumptions, big changes could result in the hurricane path, and apparently reduced the likelihood that we would be extremely surprised with a path change. It also allowed for models to be rated against each other by the public, so a vigorous competition began (and continues) for bragging rights over whose model is most accurate.
I'd suspect that the Indian ocean tsunami of 2004 created the deepest part of that trough, by eliminating a lot of highly vulnerable coastal dwellers. Combine that with better modeling and there you go.
I suspect this is a side-effect of increased urbanization in Bangladesh, which would have moved millions away from the very flood-prone fields and to factories in the cities.
ReplyDeleteI think this is primarily due to the improvements in modelling/tracking hurricanes, which allows for earlier and more correctly-targeted evacuations (even in the third world); with some additional assistance from improvements in detecting/tracking tsunamis (ditto). Most of the other weather events here are either (still) not predictable in an actionable length of time (tornadoes, etc.) or don't generally result in the kind of infrastructure damage that leads to evacuation orders (heat/cold waves).
ReplyDeleteJanet
Both developments sound plausible, but I'm not seeing why there would be such a sharp break at the year 2000.
ReplyDeleteMy instinct is that this improvement is more to do with post-disaster-event sanitation, water-supply, and healthcare -- rather than e.g.: fewer people drowning or being killed by collapsing structures.
ReplyDeleteThat still leaves the question of "what changed?"
@Texan99, the big change in 2001 for hurricane forecasting was that NOAA began publishing "ensemble" predictions-- showing the different forecasts being produced by multiple models, run by multiple different entities (mostly universities) in addition to their own models. This allowed for an explicit acknowledgement that, with small changes in assumptions, big changes could result in the hurricane path, and apparently reduced the likelihood that we would be extremely surprised with a path change. It also allowed for models to be rated against each other by the public, so a vigorous competition began (and continues) for bragging rights over whose model is most accurate.
ReplyDeleteJanet
That makes a lot of sense, Janet. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThat makes more sense to me in terms of protecting the U.S. shore than the shores where the big death tolls were originating, like Bangladesh.
ReplyDeleteI'd suspect that the Indian ocean tsunami of 2004 created the deepest part of that trough, by eliminating a lot of highly vulnerable coastal dwellers. Combine that with better modeling and there you go.
ReplyDelete