Will we fight? Will we even struggle?

From Glenn Reynolds:
Also in the mix, somehow: Chinese think tank: China should cut Putin loose ASAP and make nice with the invigorated west. Yeah, all this Ukraine stuff runs the risk of reminding westerners what they believe in and convincing them to fight for it. Can’t have that!
Once the NYT figures that out, they’ll go from jingoist to pacifist overnight.
Plus: “China may be gambling that the western appetite for punishing Beijing if it sends military aid to Moscow will be weak at a moment of high inflation and sky-high gas prices. Western consumers can stand only so much pain; the U.S. and EU won’t open another front of global economic warfare when they’ve already gone nuclear with Russia via sanctions. But here’s the question: Is China in a position to risk that at the moment? They’re hurting economically already. . . . Putin also believed that the west wouldn’t dare wage economic war on him for attacking Ukraine by freezing his currency reserves or isolating Russia’s central bank. How’s that working out for him? Does China want to roll the dice that it won’t be hit surprisingly hard too at a moment when the U.S. and EU are in a mood to de-globalize? When China and Russia announced their “no limits” partnership against the west just six weeks ago, Beijing hoped that the alliance would be a force multiplier that gained each of them a sphere of influence at the expense of the U.S. Suddenly, to its horror, China is learning that Russia is a paper tiger not just economically but militarily.”
Imagine what trouble China would be in if the United States had a functional presidency.
on

3 comments:

  1. sykes.19:08 AM

    It doesn't matter who is President. The US has no leverage over China. It remains to be seen whether China will provide any assistance to Russia in the Ukrainian war. However, China has no other allies other than Russia and North Korea, and China desperately needs Russia, not only for all sorts or resources and food, but for basic security. That is what drives Chinese policy. The US is merely an irritant.

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  2. Grim11:12 AM

    Reynolds began with a link to CDR Salamander, one of the original Milbloggers and a man still very much worth reading. Don’t miss his piece.

    https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/yes-ukraine-and-russia-but-the-varsity?s=r

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  3. E Hines2:31 PM

    Putin also believed that the west wouldn’t dare wage economic war on him for attacking Ukraine by freezing his currency reserves or isolating Russia’s central bank. How’s that working out for him?

    Indeed, how is that working out, in practical terms? Vis.: how many battalions have those sanctions forced Putin to withdraw from Ukraine? How much have those sanctions abated Putin's bombarding civilian neighborhoods, hospitals, schools, ground corridors filled with "agreed" civilian evacuees? How much have those sanctions caused Putin to pull back his barbarians from their determined raping and looting?

    Suddenly, to its horror, China is learning that Russia is a paper tiger not just economically but militarily.

    This is laughable. The PRC has known all along how weak militarily--and economically--Russia is in relative terms. That weakness is not a new discovery; it's a feature of the PRC-Russia relationship, from Xi's perspective. The relationship reduces Russia to dependency on the PRC and grants the PRC functional, if not legal, return of "stolen" Siberia to PRC control.

    On the larger matter, Xi has very little, indeed, to fear from Biden-Harris, who is so desperate to avoid war at any cost.

    Eric Hines

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