It didn't have to be this way. A well-executed withdrawal would have saved their lives and perhaps saved the anti-Taliban government. The acronym is NEO -- Noncombatant Evacuation Operation -- "the departure of civilian noncombatants and nonessential military personnel from danger in an overseas country to a designated safe haven ... "
The U.S. military is highly skilled at NEO. Even a NEO involving an area as large as Afghanistan could have been planned and prepared in 30 to 45 days if the Joint Chiefs of Staff had coordinating power and the State Department arranged for temporary refugee housing in third-country safe havens. The decision to withdraw from the huge air base at Bagram was utterly stupid, at least until threatened Afghans were extracted.
President Joe Biden gave his withdrawal speech on April 14. There was time. Incompetent, arrogant and oblivious White House leadership compounded by obscenely bad interagency planning created the horror we witness and the slaughter to be.
UPDATE: Hey, how about Ryan Crocker?
“I’m left with some grave questions in my mind about his ability to lead our nation as commander-in-chief,” Crocker, who led the U.S. Embassy in Kabul from 2002 to 2003, then again from 2011 to 2012, told The Spokesman-Review.
“To have read this so wrong – or, even worse, to have understood what was likely to happen and not care,” he added.
Crocker, who also represented the U.S. in Afghanistan under the Bush administration from 2002 to 2003, said the collapse of Afghan forces amid the U.S. troop withdrawal was the result of “a total lack of coordinated, post-withdrawal planning on our part.”
“That’s why this is all so sad,” he added. “It is a self-inflicted wound.”
I assume you have seen this, but wanted to make sure.
ReplyDeletehttps://pjmedia.com/instapundit/468442/
Yes, he and I are on much the same page. I think I agree with everything he said. The problem is that structural reform such as he discusses requires powerful political will -- will not currently present in the elected government, if the elected government still in fact has the power to exercise such control over this massive bureaucracy. Even after the midterms of next year, and the formation of a new Congress in 2023, the administration will probably oppose such reforms -- and those major defense contractors certainly will, with all their lobbyist money.
ReplyDeleteIf it is possible, it must be because the American people insist on it loudly enough that no politician of any party can ignore them. Is that part possible, Americans coming together on anything across party and factional lines? I don't know.
The U.S. military is highly skilled at NEO. Even a NEO involving an area as large as Afghanistan could have been planned and prepared in 30 to 45 days if the Joint Chiefs of Staff had coordinating power and the State Department arranged for temporary refugee housing in third-country safe havens.
ReplyDeleteIt shouldn't have needed those 30-45 days; it should already have been in place and regularly exercised.
When my wife and I were stationed in Germany, even in those days of low risk, the USAF forces there--every unit--and, I suspect, the other services as well, had NEO plans--were required by regulation to have them, and we exercised them--were required by regulation do so. The REFORGER exercises we used to run (but shamefully don't anymore) provided a chance to exercise the dovetailing of outgoing NEO with arrival of reinforcements.
In a modern conflict, where the war will be won by the forces in place--no time for industrial ramp-up for combat equipment loss replacement, soldier recruit/draftee training ramp up for combat men/women loss replacement, reinforcement delivery from out of theater, our national sovereignty will be in the gale, not the wind. Especially so with Presidents like our current one, who will beg for preemptive surrender.
Eric Hines