Uh-oh. Headline: "Nashville Business Owners Defy Mayor and Remain Open! – Say Order to Close Bars and Restaurants on Broadway Is UNCONSTITUTIONAL."
It probably would have been better to avoid this stress test. The courts are likely to try to find some way to declare it constitutional, given that public health is so neatly concerned with it. But it's done now. Is it constitutional for the US government to deny what are usually ordinary basic liberties, given the presence of a pandemic that is also epidemic? How far do emergency powers go in voiding constitutional liberties?
That's going to be an interesting set of questions. It'll be an interesting set of answers, too.
Especially as the federal government is using a particular containment strategy, which may or may not be the correct one. We are all going to be exposed eventually. The Brits tried the idea of letting the young be exposed in an effort to create herd immunity. That may not be better, but it is at least plausible. We are trying to flatten the curve in the hopes of A) a vaccine, and/or b) learning better ideas how to treat those who are symptomatic.
ReplyDeleteIf someone thinks another strategy is better, are they allowed to act on that? What if that person is an expert who might be right? What if that person is a governor who is listening to an expert who might be right? What if strategies are not just different, but one actively undermines the effectiveness of the other?
The goal of flattening the curve is not merely to buy time for medical advances. It is also to keep the limited number of critical-care beds from being overwhelmed by too many people suffering severe complications all at once, within the very near future, long before we can hope for the development of new treatments or vaccines.
ReplyDeleteSome irreducible fraction of patients will still die from this thing, but we may yet prevent the worst horrors of seeing people stacked up on gurneys in hallways, unable to get access even to the treatments we already have, simply because there aren't enough ventilators to go around when too many people become exposed at one time. We have the clear picture of Italy to show us what this will be like.
Comparing Italy to the US may be a bit of apple and orange comparison. 1) Almost a quarter of Italy's population is over 65, so they are at higher risk for any flu/SARS virus. 2) They have around 5X fewer ICU beds per 100,000 than does the US, if the WHO sources are close to correct. That alone is a problem. 3) Antibiotics are much more readily available in Europe than in the US, so it is possible that many people took antibiotics when they got sick, waited to see if those would work, and so were that much sicker when they sought the next tier of medical care. 4) Personal space is very different in Italy, Spain, Portugal than the US, and we don't kiss each other as a greeting the way older people in those countries do.
ReplyDeleteIf you remove the cluster of deaths in WA, where they are back-dating the first known Wu-flu case, the US mortality to known case picture is rather different from Italy.
Right now, I trust talking with family associates who are involved in epidemiology than I trust the media and 95% of the internet. But that's just me.
LittleRed1
Virology has never made a vaccine successfully vs corona x. Thus if even if they unveil a vaccine in the next 6-12 months... I would not recommend taking it, unless you want to go along with the Cabal in whatever plan they are cooking up.
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned before, a strategic scenario for the usage of a released bio whatever, is to force the world to react with a vaccine. This response is so predictable that the plan to control the vaccine, is also predictable.
But this current American scenario is a good test. What happens when mandatory vaccines are made into law in America, and kids/mothers/daughters/fathers must take them OR ELSE? What are Americans gonna do?
Obey Authority, and pay the IRS, as usual? Do what they are told to do?
Well, if people need to vote for Trum because the world will end under Clinton, 9/11 scenario, what about a mandatory vaccine? Who will be allowed to refuse the Mark of the Beast?
There is an economic and social price to be paid, as a result of this. What it is we do not know yet.
ReplyDeleteThe unintended consequences could be huge.
Just one small item on the list- a parent having to stay home from work to watch a child ,home from a closed school. Not much impact if they are a barista in a restaurant that is closed anyway- but what if they are a nurse, or a powerplant maintenance tech, etc?
We live in interesting times.
We live in interesting times.
ReplyDeleteThis is only the prologue. Wait a few more weeks. Many Acts to follow this year and the next.
Civilization will collapse? Haha. No. That's boring. We have all seen the post apoc stories before. The Divine has something a lot more "interesting" in store.