The city and country face “wartime conditions,” Ms. Sun said. “There must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever.”
Well, it's good to see they're focusing their resources on the right issues, at least:
With public anger simmering, the Communist Party has moved to stifle news organizations and social media platforms where criticism of the government’s initial response were for a time left uncensored online.
The China Media Project, a watchdog group in partnership with the University of Hong Kong, published a directive from the Cyberspace Administration of China, which oversees the internet, accusing several social media companies of “illegally engaging in internet news information services in epidemic-related reports.”
It said some of the country’s giants, including Sina Weibo, Tencent and ByteDance, would be placed under special supervision to ensure “a favorable online environment for winning the war for prevention and control of the coronavirus outbreak.”
Because that's what really helps contain and cure a viral outbreak... shutting down news about it. /rolleyes
The stats are misleading. One cannot take current infections and calculate using current deaths. Using the Chinese gov numbers, which are widely believed to be optimistic, the death rate is about 20%. This is based on 10 days between confirmed infection and death. 10 days ago they said 3000 infected. Yesterday they said 600 dead. 20%. Apparently the crematoriums are running around the clock, and there is talk of open pit pyres outside Wuhan. Satellite pic confirm the fires, what they are burning is up for speculation.
The cruise ships, being out from Chinese control, will be a more accurate indication of the severity of this disease.
I'm willing to put money down they're not burning sage to drive away evil spirits. But by the same token, I'd not judge the mortality rate in Wuhan (or China in general) to be representative of how lethal it would be worldwide. Mostly because the level of treatment that have been reported (and remember, they're censoring unflattering portrayals of their response; so the "reported" levels of treatment are to be weighed with a measure of suspicion) are far below what we would consider to be adequate. I agree with you that the cruise ships (docked in Western ports, and yes I include Japan as "Western" for these purposes) will be a far better measure of actual lethality. I also suspect said lethality to be very, very low.
In short, I expect the PRC to be doing a lousy job of actually treating the infected with any measure of what we would consider "reasonable modern medical care", and are more likely treating them with "throw them over there and hope they get better or just die quietly". I think they're vastly more concerned with the appearance of being in control and being seen as doing everything they can to limit the spread to other communities. And if that eventually means gunning down people trying to flee the area, I have no doubts they'll do that as well.
I told the hong kong bois that they only need to hold on until 2021.
But this can be a useful distraction as it will tie up the maoista and their evil shenanigans.
Making nk and maoism fall or reform is not the goal of a single human in america. Rather it is the goal or outcome of more legions of angelspirit elohim than those here can believe.
I think the opposite- that the fatality rate is far higher than admitted. Several things to think about-
If the fatality rate is in fact low, why are the Chinese putting on such a show? As of now, estimates are there are hundreds of millions on lockdown. One disturbing reason for locking people into their dwellings could be to prevent the streets from loading up with the dead. In other words, concealing the dead. There have been some videos showing long lines of vans and bodies being carried out of high rise flats.
Also- my belief is the Chinese knew they had screwed the pooch very early on- I can recall nothing like this in the sars epidemic years ago- this seems like someone found out something and went, OH SHIT!! Like a release from the bio lab in Wuhan, for example. Every single Gov worker from cops to medics are in full bio-hazard suits.
The main problem in equating to the west, and western medical care, is that while we have the resources for a few patients, we have nowhere near enough for any sort of mass event- I suspect our approach would end up being exactly like the Chinese- triage- the important people get the best care, the bulk are kept as comfortable as possible, and the remainder left to die.
The photos of giant disinfectant fogging machines on deserted city streets, and sick people being picked off the sidewalks and crammed into steel boxes on the back of pickup trucks does not inspire confidence - The ship that is docked in Yokohama under quarantine- Apparently patient #1 was on the ship for five days, non symptomatic, disembarked with the rest of the tour group, and developed symptoms later- and the current tour group who got ON the ship a day later are the ones now showing symptoms. So they either picked it up off a contaminated surface or from a crew member. If this thing is a leak out of a bio weapon lab, we could be in for some very interesting times.
If the fatality rate is in fact low, why are the Chinese putting on such a show?
Because, as evidenced by their actions, the primary concern of the ChiComs is image. They cannot bear to be seen as being weak or inept. They're heavily censoring news, because what comes out makes them look bad. From the doctor who tried to warn them about the outbreak being arrested, and then dying of the disease, to their shoddy attempts to bunk the ill (I almost said "treat" the ill, but I doubt very much treatment is really any kind of priority for them).
Every single Gov worker from cops to medics are in full bio-hazard suits.
As would I be too, if it were available. Because those people, likely better than anyone else, knows what they do with the sick (i.e. put them somewhere to die or get better on their own). And they don't want to even be suspected of being ill for fear of getting "locked in the asylum" as it were.
The main problem in equating to the west, and western medical care, is that while we have the resources for a few patients, we have nowhere near enough for any sort of mass event- I suspect our approach would end up being exactly like the Chinese- triage- the important people get the best care, the bulk are kept as comfortable as possible, and the remainder left to die.
Our ability to provide basic life-sustaining support (i.e. fluids, warmth, anti-febrile medications) is actually tremendous. A US hospital staff can do this stuff in their sleep. The problem is when the basic infrastructure is lacking when the crisis hits. And in China, well, I'll let Grim speak to that, as he's seen it first hand. This is a respiratory infection, actual treatment is not complicated, expensive, or even really challenging. If you can keep the patients warm, fed, hydrated, and keep fevers down, they will likely get better just fine. The 1918 Spanish Flu was lethal to the strong and healthy because it caused cytokine storm reactions in their immune systems. The coronavirus (why didn't they call it the Kung Flu?) kills the very young and the very old (i.e. the weak and unhealthy). Why? Because they're vulnerable to secondary infections and can slip into serious fevers rapidly while healthy adults can generally deal with the symptoms just fine.
The photos of giant disinfectant fogging machines on deserted city streets, and sick people being picked off the sidewalks and crammed into steel boxes on the back of pickup trucks does not inspire confidence -
Don't confuse inept, "sweep it under the rug" reactions from the ChiComs to be some evidence of the "true lethality" of this thing. Look at how ridiculously few people OUTSIDE China who have this virus actually die. Cruise ships are notorious for spreading an illness like wildfire (remember the vomit ship a couple years back)? But we're just not seeing deaths coming out of this. Oh, we absolutely WILL in China (if they ever actually give any kind of accounting on it), but that has everything to do with their response to it and their absolutely abysmal health care system.
And in China, well, I'll let Grim speak to that, as he's seen it first hand.
In fairness to the Chinese, my experience is nearly twenty years old, and their infrastructure has changed a great deal in that time. When I was there refrigeration even for food was nonstandard; food was still sold and consumed either fresh (which in the case of meat often meant you'd see people taking a live duck or rabbit home for dinner) or dried/smoked/preserved. I was in Hangzhou, one of the cities quarantined today, when the very first thing you might call a "supermarket" opened. Mostly food was sold in open-air stalls.
I think the economic boom of the last two decades has changed it a lot. I hope some of that change has gone into improving their health infrastructure somewhat.
On the other hand, Chinese culture is largely accepting of mass deaths historically. Wars and massacres in Chinese history are on a scale that the West has almost never contemplated; look into the regular purges of Buddhism during the Imperial periods, for example. The Opium War solution of just killing everyone who used Opium is another example. The Communists have been particularly bloodthirsty, but their opponents in the Chinese Civil War also murdered at least two million people outside combat.
My guess is they have great healthcare infrastructure now, but only for party leadership; somewhat less for the military, whom they need for mass control; and very little for the ordinary people.
Apologies, I was thinking of this article you wrote (and which I found through the VC archives recently). If you believe that is no longer the case, I will defer to your direct knowledge.
But I will say, I fully expect ChiCom claims of "quality medical care" available to the sick to be "dubious" as a vast understatement. And what little information is leaking out (i.e. from non-governmental sources which quickly get squelched) seem to bear that up. And it is precisely the fact that facts put the lie to official government statements that make me believe the PRC government is more concerned with appearing competent and capable of handling the problem than... you know... actually handling the problem.
That is an excellent point, Raven. While China's health systems are less healthy and modern than the US, that does not take into account the fact that the Chinese are "used" to these plagues popping up. And so why the over reaction now, when their economy and capitalism is at an all time high?
Suspicious data points must be analyzed instead of ignored for the "rosy picture" that humans prefer to believe in.
If a million Chinese died in SARS or whatever, the Chinese capitalism of Mao would not care unless they were vassals or family. They care about the stock market. Yet they actually crashed their stock market due to this.
Our ability to provide basic life-sustaining support (i.e. fluids, warmth, anti-febrile medications) is actually tremendous.
A Major City in Louisiana got hit by Katrina and... they were able to provide basic life sustaining support? They couldn't even ship the water out due to FEMA and National Guard delays...
Americans are a bit too optimistic perhaps. The system over compensates itself, yes, but that is assuming the rest of the 49 states can provide relief and care, which compensates for the corruption and Deep State antics.
Via the epoch times. They run ads on youtube on this.
The new corono v spreads during incubation. So carriers arr spreading it for up to 14 wks. Chinese are good at math. They can figurr out exponential growth. It caused them to panic.
High contagion and high fatality are normally opposed. But if low fatality, look to the second stage catalyst.
Well, it's good to see they're focusing their resources on the right issues, at least:
ReplyDeleteWith public anger simmering, the Communist Party has moved to stifle news organizations and social media platforms where criticism of the government’s initial response were for a time left uncensored online.
The China Media Project, a watchdog group in partnership with the University of Hong Kong, published a directive from the Cyberspace Administration of China, which oversees the internet, accusing several social media companies of “illegally engaging in internet news information services in epidemic-related reports.”
It said some of the country’s giants, including Sina Weibo, Tencent and ByteDance, would be placed under special supervision to ensure “a favorable online environment for winning the war for prevention and control of the coronavirus outbreak.”
Because that's what really helps contain and cure a viral outbreak... shutting down news about it. /rolleyes
This is what the news looks like:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/rlheinrichs/status/1225813025820749824?s=21
The stats are misleading. One cannot take current infections and calculate using current deaths.
ReplyDeleteUsing the Chinese gov numbers, which are widely believed to be optimistic, the death rate is about 20%. This is based on 10 days between confirmed infection and death. 10 days ago they said 3000 infected. Yesterday they said 600 dead. 20%.
Apparently the crematoriums are running around the clock, and there is talk of open pit pyres outside Wuhan. Satellite pic confirm the fires, what they are burning is up for speculation.
The cruise ships, being out from Chinese control, will be a more accurate indication of the severity of this disease.
raven,
ReplyDeleteI'm willing to put money down they're not burning sage to drive away evil spirits. But by the same token, I'd not judge the mortality rate in Wuhan (or China in general) to be representative of how lethal it would be worldwide. Mostly because the level of treatment that have been reported (and remember, they're censoring unflattering portrayals of their response; so the "reported" levels of treatment are to be weighed with a measure of suspicion) are far below what we would consider to be adequate. I agree with you that the cruise ships (docked in Western ports, and yes I include Japan as "Western" for these purposes) will be a far better measure of actual lethality. I also suspect said lethality to be very, very low.
In short, I expect the PRC to be doing a lousy job of actually treating the infected with any measure of what we would consider "reasonable modern medical care", and are more likely treating them with "throw them over there and hope they get better or just die quietly". I think they're vastly more concerned with the appearance of being in control and being seen as doing everything they can to limit the spread to other communities. And if that eventually means gunning down people trying to flee the area, I have no doubts they'll do that as well.
I told the hong kong bois that they only need to hold on until 2021.
ReplyDeleteBut this can be a useful distraction as it will tie up the maoista and their evil shenanigans.
Making nk and maoism fall or reform is not the goal of a single human in america. Rather it is the goal or outcome of more legions of angelspirit elohim than those here can believe.
I think the opposite- that the fatality rate is far higher than admitted. Several things to think about-
ReplyDeleteIf the fatality rate is in fact low, why are the Chinese putting on such a show? As of now, estimates are there are hundreds of millions on lockdown. One disturbing reason for locking people into their dwellings could be to prevent the streets from loading up with the dead. In other words, concealing the dead. There have been some videos showing long lines of vans and bodies being carried out of high rise flats.
Also- my belief is the Chinese knew they had screwed the pooch very early on- I can recall nothing like this in the sars epidemic years ago- this seems like someone found out something and went, OH SHIT!! Like a release from the bio lab in Wuhan, for example. Every single Gov worker from cops to medics are in full bio-hazard suits.
The main problem in equating to the west, and western medical care, is that while we have the resources for a few patients, we have nowhere near enough for any sort of mass event- I suspect our approach would end up being exactly like the Chinese- triage- the important people get the best care, the bulk are kept as comfortable as possible, and the remainder left to die.
The photos of giant disinfectant fogging machines on deserted city streets, and sick people being picked off the sidewalks and crammed into steel boxes on the back of pickup trucks does not inspire confidence -
The ship that is docked in Yokohama under quarantine- Apparently patient #1 was on the ship for five days, non symptomatic, disembarked with the rest of the tour group, and developed symptoms later- and the current tour group who got ON the ship a day later are the ones now showing symptoms. So they either picked it up off a contaminated surface or from a crew member.
If this thing is a leak out of a bio weapon lab, we could be in for some very interesting times.
If the fatality rate is in fact low, why are the Chinese putting on such a show?
ReplyDeleteBecause, as evidenced by their actions, the primary concern of the ChiComs is image. They cannot bear to be seen as being weak or inept. They're heavily censoring news, because what comes out makes them look bad. From the doctor who tried to warn them about the outbreak being arrested, and then dying of the disease, to their shoddy attempts to bunk the ill (I almost said "treat" the ill, but I doubt very much treatment is really any kind of priority for them).
Every single Gov worker from cops to medics are in full bio-hazard suits.
As would I be too, if it were available. Because those people, likely better than anyone else, knows what they do with the sick (i.e. put them somewhere to die or get better on their own). And they don't want to even be suspected of being ill for fear of getting "locked in the asylum" as it were.
The main problem in equating to the west, and western medical care, is that while we have the resources for a few patients, we have nowhere near enough for any sort of mass event- I suspect our approach would end up being exactly like the Chinese- triage- the important people get the best care, the bulk are kept as comfortable as possible, and the remainder left to die.
Our ability to provide basic life-sustaining support (i.e. fluids, warmth, anti-febrile medications) is actually tremendous. A US hospital staff can do this stuff in their sleep. The problem is when the basic infrastructure is lacking when the crisis hits. And in China, well, I'll let Grim speak to that, as he's seen it first hand. This is a respiratory infection, actual treatment is not complicated, expensive, or even really challenging. If you can keep the patients warm, fed, hydrated, and keep fevers down, they will likely get better just fine. The 1918 Spanish Flu was lethal to the strong and healthy because it caused cytokine storm reactions in their immune systems. The coronavirus (why didn't they call it the Kung Flu?) kills the very young and the very old (i.e. the weak and unhealthy). Why? Because they're vulnerable to secondary infections and can slip into serious fevers rapidly while healthy adults can generally deal with the symptoms just fine.
The photos of giant disinfectant fogging machines on deserted city streets, and sick people being picked off the sidewalks and crammed into steel boxes on the back of pickup trucks does not inspire confidence -
Don't confuse inept, "sweep it under the rug" reactions from the ChiComs to be some evidence of the "true lethality" of this thing. Look at how ridiculously few people OUTSIDE China who have this virus actually die. Cruise ships are notorious for spreading an illness like wildfire (remember the vomit ship a couple years back)? But we're just not seeing deaths coming out of this. Oh, we absolutely WILL in China (if they ever actually give any kind of accounting on it), but that has everything to do with their response to it and their absolutely abysmal health care system.
Mike,
ReplyDeleteI so hope you are right and I am wrong.
And in China, well, I'll let Grim speak to that, as he's seen it first hand.
ReplyDeleteIn fairness to the Chinese, my experience is nearly twenty years old, and their infrastructure has changed a great deal in that time. When I was there refrigeration even for food was nonstandard; food was still sold and consumed either fresh (which in the case of meat often meant you'd see people taking a live duck or rabbit home for dinner) or dried/smoked/preserved. I was in Hangzhou, one of the cities quarantined today, when the very first thing you might call a "supermarket" opened. Mostly food was sold in open-air stalls.
I think the economic boom of the last two decades has changed it a lot. I hope some of that change has gone into improving their health infrastructure somewhat.
On the other hand, Chinese culture is largely accepting of mass deaths historically. Wars and massacres in Chinese history are on a scale that the West has almost never contemplated; look into the regular purges of Buddhism during the Imperial periods, for example. The Opium War solution of just killing everyone who used Opium is another example. The Communists have been particularly bloodthirsty, but their opponents in the Chinese Civil War also murdered at least two million people outside combat.
My guess is they have great healthcare infrastructure now, but only for party leadership; somewhat less for the military, whom they need for mass control; and very little for the ordinary people.
Apologies, I was thinking of this article you wrote (and which I found through the VC archives recently). If you believe that is no longer the case, I will defer to your direct knowledge.
ReplyDeleteBut I will say, I fully expect ChiCom claims of "quality medical care" available to the sick to be "dubious" as a vast understatement. And what little information is leaking out (i.e. from non-governmental sources which quickly get squelched) seem to bear that up. And it is precisely the fact that facts put the lie to official government statements that make me believe the PRC government is more concerned with appearing competent and capable of handling the problem than... you know... actually handling the problem.
That is an excellent point, Raven. While China's health systems are less healthy and modern than the US, that does not take into account the fact that the Chinese are "used" to these plagues popping up. And so why the over reaction now, when their economy and capitalism is at an all time high?
ReplyDeleteSuspicious data points must be analyzed instead of ignored for the "rosy picture" that humans prefer to believe in.
If a million Chinese died in SARS or whatever, the Chinese capitalism of Mao would not care unless they were vassals or family. They care about the stock market. Yet they actually crashed their stock market due to this.
Our ability to provide basic life-sustaining support (i.e. fluids, warmth, anti-febrile medications) is actually tremendous.
ReplyDeleteA Major City in Louisiana got hit by Katrina and... they were able to provide basic life sustaining support? They couldn't even ship the water out due to FEMA and National Guard delays...
Americans are a bit too optimistic perhaps. The system over compensates itself, yes, but that is assuming the rest of the 49 states can provide relief and care, which compensates for the corruption and Deep State antics.
Via the epoch times. They run ads on youtube on this.
ReplyDeleteThe new corono v spreads during incubation. So carriers arr spreading it for up to 14 wks. Chinese are good at math. They can figurr out exponential growth. It caused them to panic.
High contagion and high fatality are normally opposed. But if low fatality, look to the second stage catalyst.