Friday 1728 Romeo: Tex reports internet down, power and other comms still up. Wind moderate.
Friday 2100 Romeo: Tex wrote to say that the worst of the storm would make landfall just west of her, which is of course the worst case. As of 1930 she was still receiving messages, but has since gone quiet. It may be that the atmospheric disturbance is too great right now.
"" 2200 R: Radar shows she was right. The red wall of the eye is lashing them now, with landfall just west. No comms still, but that is to be expected under the circumstances.
Saturday 1244 R: Still nothing from Tex. My phone still says that the last message delivered/read was yesterday at 1930, so probably cell networks are just down. Local firefighters were holding at the station because it was too dangerous to move, but the station stayed up. There are reports of buildings that didn't, or didn't quite, but they sound institutional so far. A well constructed house had a better chance.
Maps now look like she's right in the bullseye of the 'right-hook'- just East of the eye, unless it veers a little more North-ward. Her house is of fairly recent construction, right? Hopefully it's built under the codes requiring metal ties from the walls to the roof, as they've upgraded to Cat4. Curiously, though, Weather Underground's windspeed indicators are only showing high 70's right now, not that far from the eyewall (my guesstimate is within 15 miles). looks like it's making landfall tonight, not dawn tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAlso not so good- NOAA's current track model shows it coming inland then looping back right over where it made landfall.
ReplyDeletePort Aransas Weather Station shows wind speeds of 71.3 sustained, 87.5 gust as of 21:00 Romeo.
ReplyDeleteI'm not seeing how this is going to be a Cat IV (130-156) hurricane at these wind speeds. Just a few miles from the eyewall and it's not even a Cat III (111-129)yet, technically.
No comms still, but Tex and her husband are smart, well prepared people. If the storm itself doesn't get them, they'll likely be fine. Hopefully your numbers are reliable pictures of what is really going on there.
ReplyDeleteMy radar program says 89 mph winds, almost 29" pressure. Eye approaching Rockport. Maybe she'll get a signal, but towers may be down.
ReplyDeleteI've been trying to watch the wind speeds, and this was the highest station I could find- Shows 76.0 mph sustained, 105.9 mph gusts. That's Cat II by the book.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the NOAA is playing public service announcer and trying to get people to take these things seriously, instead of scientist? They've done it before.
I've got 104 mph now, pressure dropping.
ReplyDeleteCorrection- the Port Aransas buoy updated with 95.5 mph sustained, 109.3 mph gust. That's tickling Cat III.
ReplyDeleteThat is a lot of pressure on a house. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteJust watched a live feed from Rockport- it was terminated by events but it looks really rough there. The eyewall went right over them. Buildings were collapsing around the guy, he was in a car taking video.
ReplyDeleteI hope Tex and Co. are well hunkered down.
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/tx/sinton/78387
ReplyDeleteSinton is a short way inland, just up from Corpus Christi. This is the first Weather Underground station I found in the area that still was on the air.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=28.04&lon=-97.51&radar=1
This gives a good visual.
It's the accumulated rain and the sustained winds that'll accumulate the damage.
Eric Hines
Heard from my brother in Houston, they spent the night without power but its up now along with 11 inches of rain so far. They had 40 inches of rain in a previous hurricane which *almost* reached the house, so he's confident the expected 30" over the next few days will not cause any damage for them. Still no word from Texan99?
ReplyDeleteI just got a text from Tex:
ReplyDeleteSurvived! House ok too
Yay!
Yay, indeed.
ReplyDeleteEric Hines
Great to hear! Thanks for letting us know.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, great to hear.
ReplyDeleteLooks like another factor that helped this be a little less bad is that it made landfall around low tide, reducing the surge some.
Can't wait to hear some first-hand reporting of the experience of riding it out from Tex.
Yeah! Thanks for the update, Elsie.
ReplyDeleteWe got a little moisture from the far outer bands up here, but it is supposed to start pulling dry air in over us (TX Panhandle) tomorrow.
LittleRed1
Well that is good news!
ReplyDeleteHeavy Damage in Texas from Harvey; Disastrous Flooding Lies Ahead
ReplyDeleteAbove: A damaged home in Rockport, Texas, as seen on August 26, 2017. Image credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images.
Those sorts of photos are interesting and give an idea of some of the damage, but notice that just in that picture alone, there are several other houses that appear to have ridden the storm out fine. I always wonder what was it that failed first that set that house to getting ripped apart, or what hit it that caused the damage that started it's demise? As bad as it is, this isn't Andrew by any stretch. There's damage to be sure, but hit and miss- not blanket like Andrew was.
ReplyDeleteI'm still trying to track down the weather station that read wind speeds over 130 mph that they could call this Cat IV. Highest I've been able to find is 118 mph gust, 96 mph constant. I've checked all the sensors in the area near the eyewall, even one that clearly from the data went through the eye (interestingly, not the highest speed- 73/96). Can't find the one that showed Cat IV speeds. ???
Douglas, do you have access to the wind and weather reports from the off-shore platform stations? I suspect one of those gave the Cat IV wind speeds. My contact down in that area is a "wee bit" busy right now so I can't get confirmation of my guess.
ReplyDeleteLittleRed1
I've been checking the ones closest to the point of landfall mainly. I just went and checked a few offshore that I hadn't before, and they showed pretty low peak wind speeds. You can look for yourself at NOAA. This is a specific station, but you can zoom in and out on the map and select any station you want. Go down to the stats table, and you can click on the wind speed or gust graph graphic to see the history in graph form of the wind speeds.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why this is such a bee in my bonnet, but it's bugging me alright...
I'm also wondering about the accuracy of anemometers in high speed winds, as here's an offshore sensor that the graph looks like it touched the eye, and the windspeeds show under 60mph (around 50 knots). Weird.
ReplyDeleteLoved the extreme Texas weather sign. Every time there is a flood or hurricane in Texas, my sister calls me to see if I am all right. I have REPEATEDLY informed her that due to the terrain where live, the possibility of being flooded out resembles that of getting a Richter scale 7 earthquake in NE. But plenty of rain- yes.
ReplyDeleteKingston Trio: Merry Minuet.
There's rioting in Africa
They're starving in Spain
There's hurricanes in Florida
And Texas needs rain.
Well, sometimes. When the song came out in the late '50s, Texas was in the midst of a big drought.
And definitely not today in the Houston area. Recall that Galveston used to be the big port of entry for Texas. The big hurricane in the early 1900s that destroyed Galveston resulted in the big growth of Houston- an inland port that wouldn't be as likely to get wiped out by a hurricane.
Glad to hear that, so far, they are ok.
ReplyDeleteWell, someone had to do this-
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVjdMLAMbM0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeOLFKc3XmI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bJD6EJ2eYo
I've got to add one-
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YswZDySc80