Just a Reminder: Bernie Would Have Won

An analysis from the British press suggests that the DNC shot itself in the foot by rigging its process for Clinton instead of Bernie.

If the Caddell hypothesis is correct, as I think it is, the Sanders campaign was much more likely to succeed against Trump than the Clinton campaign. This is because they both were on the same ground on the 80% question of whether the system was about the control and enrichment of a self-serving elite. Since the force of that question would have been disarmed, the attacks on Trump's character would have been far more telling even than they were.

Instead, the contest became one between the living symbol of rigged systems for the well-connected, and an outsider. Trump was still damaged by his bad moral conduct towards the weak -- as he should have been. Refusing to keep to your agreements to pay your contractors, to pick one example of such conduct that happens to be stripped of the sex/race connotations that can make debate difficult, really is the mark of a scoundrel. That is the sort of thing that ought to be damaging if it is true.

It wasn't damaging enough just because of the 80% question. Bernie would have won in a walk, I think, in spite of the very good arguments against socialist solutions to some of these problems. Only Clinton was sufficiently symbolic of the thing many voters wanted to reject to have possibly lost to Donald Trump.

UPDATE: An article in the Washington Post makes an allied point.

UPDATE: Bernie campaign leader: "We have nothing polite to say right now."

15 comments:

  1. Ymar Sakar3:15 PM

    Many Sanders voters also said they would vote Trum, and given the Alt's Right propaganda reach, they would have ensured that as many that would, did.

    I also think that the voter fraud machine worked out well, but they miscalculated. Many of their vote counters would be staffers and volunteers, from the Bernie camp.

    They still got the popular vote right, and lost the electoral college, which means they won in the cities but lost in the hinterlands.

    Part of the "if it is not close, they can't steal it" theory.

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  2. Eric Blair10:07 PM

    I don't think Sanders would have prevailed against Trump, because Sanders would have had to explain how he was going to pay for everything, but then, if Sanders had ended up the Democrat nominee, I don't think Trump would have been the Republican nominee.

    With all the media collusion that was going on with the Clinton campaign, their strategy of "get Trump nominated" blew up in their faces.

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  3. Anonymous11:05 AM

    No Way. not even close, I don't think Sanders would have prevailed against Trump.
    Not this time, not selling morally bent sociallism/ communism redistrubute the wealth schemes.

    Come on Grim, Momma did not raise fools. We may look stupid, but we are not.

    -Mississippi

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  4. I never thought you would vote for Sanders.

    Trump won apparently ~51% of white women, though, which is surprising all things considered. He won close to 20% of black men. You'd have only had to move a few percent over to the other side for this election to have gone the other way. Clinton couldn't do it, being the very living symbol of the establishment. But Sanders might have done.

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  5. Anonymous11:36 AM

    This is resfreshing.

    https://nypost.com/2016/11/10/trump-calls-slain-cops-widow-to-offer-condolences/

    Obama would never call a slain cops widow like trump just did.

    Do you think Bernie would have called? I do not think so.

    I watch what Bernie does, and what he says, and what he does not say

    What he does not say, speaks volume.

    Try looking up "Bernie on police relations" All Top Down solutions. Yuch

    _Mississippi

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  6. Gringo11:55 AM

    He won close to 20% of black men.
    According to Fox and CNN,Trump won 13% of black men.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/exit-polls
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/exit-polls

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  7. Exit polls differ, I guess, but that one agrees that 20% of black men at least did not vote for Clinton.

    So let's use your numbers instead. My point holds, I think: that's a big figure for a Democrat to have lost. I don't know that Sanders would have come in so badly in that demographic. There were photographs of him marching with Dr. King, and being arrested during the Civil Rights era. He was somebody they would have had every reason to see as legit. Clinton was an establishment tool who lied to their faces, demonstrably, time and again.

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  8. Obama would never call a slain cops widow like trump just did.

    Except he did, though.

    I'm sure that Trump will have a real effect on the morale of police, and that Obama failed to do so because his loyalties were divided at best on the BLM question. Still, he deserves credit where he did do the decent thing.

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  9. Gringo12:10 PM

    Here is the difference
    Black Men
    Hillary 80
    Trump 13
    Johnson 3
    Stein 3

    Black Women
    Hillary 94
    Trump 4
    Johnson 1
    Stein 1

    More Black women voted than Black men: 7% versus 5% of those polled.
    For Whites, women were 37% of those polled versus White men being 34% of those polled.

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  10. Anonymous1:35 PM

    The most pleasant surprise in all of this was that the down-ticket races went strongly Republican. I had hoped that DJT would win the election, but expected to see more Democrats win the other races.

    Good. The Democratic Party has been exiled to the Wilderness, so their first move is to consider Keith Ellison to head the DNC. If they pick him, it will be at least 4-year dry spell, instead of 2 years.

    I hope they put this period to good use. They need to clean house, and come up with fresh policies. I want to see a clean and vigorous Democratic Party. In steep contrast to the Nancy Pelosi legislative train wreck, I want to see Senators and Congresscritters dedicated to the proposition that good legislation absolutely requires the balancing of all the legitimate interests. This business of pretending that one party has a monopoly on virtue, is poisonous.

    Valerie

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  11. Anonymous2:49 PM

    .....This business of pretending that one party has a monopoly on virtue, is poisonous.....

    Yup, True That.


    Yes, Obama had 8 years to call spouse of slain policeman.
    so am I surprised you found an exception? No I am not surprised.
    am I surprised I did not know of this? No I admit I am biased against him.

    I'm still in taking out moving target mode, and buying Ammo mode.

    This election was winning a "battle". However, the war is yet to be won though.

    -Mississippi








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  12. I want to see Senators and Congresscritters dedicated to the proposition that good legislation absolutely requires the balancing of all the legitimate interests.

    I want to see these worthies operating under the larger principle that good legislation most often means "don't legislate."

    There's a reason that the legislature in the entity with the 12th largest economy in the world--Texas--only meets every other year.

    Eric Hines

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  13. Gringo6:53 PM

    I want to see these worthies operating under the larger principle that good legislation most often means "don't legislate."There's a reason that the legislature in the entity with the 12th largest economy in the world--Texas--only meets every other year.

    I follow the Texas leg on some issues. I have noticed that in the issues I follow, the idiot bills hardly ever get out of committee. And if they are voted on, usually not passed. Like you say, good legislation most often means "don't legislate."

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  14. The Democratic Party has been exiled to the Wilderness ...

    Any chance it'll last 40 years? ;-)

    I want to see Senators and Congresscritters dedicated to the proposition that good legislation absolutely requires the balancing of all the legitimate interests

    I want to see them first and foremost dedicated to the proposition that the Constitution means what it says, in the most Originalist way possible, and act accordingly.

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  15. Ymar Sakar10:03 AM

    If I recall, Hussein talked to the widows and family of the casualties at Benghazi. They came out thinking Hussein felt their pain or understood. Hard to say, based on memories alone.

    But Hussein prefers golf games rather than talking at military ceremonies or visiting families of casualties in his war, different from Bush II's admin.

    Because of Hussein's childhood indoctrination under racist Leftists and Nation of Islam, he would have easily called the family if they were black. And some of the BLM casualties were black police officers.

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