The Russian bombing campaign that Gen. Breedlove is describing as "indiscriminate" is so only in the sense that it does not meet the Just War standards for the "discriminate" use of force. It is not indiscriminate in the sense of "random" or "careless." The Russians are hitting the targets they are aiming to hit.
Putin has simply adopted Assad's strategy of emptying Syrian cities by directing mass violence towards civilian populations and their institutions, such as hospitals. There are two strategic goals advanced in this way:
1) An empty land is easier for a weak ruler like Assad to govern, making it more likely that the war will end with him in control of this physical territory.
2) The mass wave of refugees creates incredible pressure on European governments, making it more likely that they will accept any outcome that stops the pain -- meaning that they are more likely to accept an end to the war that leaves Assad in control of that physical territory, in spite of his use of chemical weapons and his ruthless attacks on noncombatants.
In other words, the Russian strategy to protect Assad from ouster because of his attacks on noncombatants is to increase sharply the number and severity of attacks on noncombatants. Europe can't survive the pressure of waves of millions of refugees, going on for years. They will cave, and Assad -- with Russian fire support and Iranian ground support -- will be able to reassert control of at least the western parts of Syria. Those are the parts Russia cares about most.
Then, in the second phase of the war, Russia and Iran can lead Iraq and Syria in consolidating their mastery of eastern Syria and Western Iraq. That will leave the Russian/Iranian alliance in control of the northern Middle East, from Afghanistan (once we withdraw) to the Levant.
A target of opportunity may be breaking NATO, which could occur if the Turks end up in a conflict with Russia that the rest of the NATO powers are unwilling to support. Even if they don't get that, they'll have won a Grand Strategic victory over the United States and the West. If they do, they'll have broken our key alliance for resisting Russian domination of Asia and Eastern Europe.
All in all, a good bit of work from Putin's perspective. Somebody still knows how to play this game.
Exactly. I get so tired of listening to White House hacks intoning how Russia "needs to understand such-and-such" or how what Russia is doing isn't "helpful." Russia doesn't need any such thing, you idiots, and what it's doing is entirely helpful toward its actual goal, whether you hacks have the courage to face that or not.
ReplyDeleteRussia doesn't need any such thing, you idiots, and what it's doing is entirely helpful toward its actual goal, whether you hacks have the courage to face that or not.
ReplyDeleteDing! Ding! Ding!
Winner, winner. Chicken dinner.
I've yet to understand the impulse for them to act as if they believe that Putin and Russia have any interest or obligation in acting in America's best interest. Yes, it'd be nice if the rest of the world would just do what we want all the time, but to expect it? More egotistical nonsense out of the Narcissist in Chief.
Susan Rice. Nothing more need be said.
ReplyDeleteNationalists and patriots may make bad enemies, but they are better than internal traitors at least.
ReplyDelete