Turkey has reportedly shot down a Russian jet.
The state of play in the air war over this region has been as follows: Russia dispatched substantial air forces, including their "supermaneuverable" Su-30 air superiority fighters. Now, these are plausibly multi-role fighters, so it wasn't totally odd that they would deploy them against an enemy that had no air force. Still, they were clearly testing Turkish airspace, reportedly locking onto Turkish planes and violating Turkish territory. The Pentagon decided to move a bunch of F-15Cs over to Turkey as a guarantor, since Turkey's aging F-16s are probably overmatched by the Russian jets. These are upgraded F-15s specifically structured for air-to-air combat.
Russia took note of the deployment, which wasn't even plausibly aimed at ISIS but at their own jets, and deployed S-300 missiles in Syria. These are thought capable of taking down anything we've got short of true stealth planes such as the F-22 and F-35. So far we haven't sent any, but it's the next logical phase in the escalation.
So today the Russians lost a bomber, an Su 24 according to their defense ministry. Exactly who shot it down -- ground fire or a Turkish F-16 -- is in dispute, as is the Turks' claim that it violated their airspace.
UPDATE: Reuters is reporting that the Russian pilots survived, but were shot dead by Turkish militia.
I could feel things heating up with the Islamic Jihad invading Europe, with their Leftist allies opening the gates.
ReplyDeleteI've been paying more attention to the blogs and open source data mining, knowing I would miss something if I went away for even 2 days, let alone a week.
http://neoneocon.com/2015/11/24/turkey-shoots-down-russian-military-aircraft-near-syria/#comment-939930
My comments and vid links are there. Of course people can always look up the TOW weapon the "moderate Muslims" used against the Russian helicopter on youtube on their own time.
The way I read that Reuters report is that they pilots were killed by "Turkmen forces in Syria," as in "people living in Syria who are of Turkish descent."
ReplyDeleteIt looks like it is the Syrian Turkmen Brigades. As with other ethnic Turkmen, though, the Turks normally assert a kind of natural leadership over all of them everywhere (much as the Chinese government does regarding anyone of Chinese descent in, say, Malaysia). The Turkish special forces have trained them, and they're therefore at least somewhat responsible for their conduct of war.
ReplyDeleteThe video has the usual shouting of "Allahu Akbar!" while the Russian plane breaks up. It will be absurdly easy for Putin to make his claims that Turkey and ISIS are aligned stick in the court of public opinion after this -- this is a clear violation of the Geneva Conventions by a party trained by a NATO power.
They shout so many Allahu Akbars that zealot and fanatic doesn't even do them justice.
ReplyDeleteThey're basically having a religious orgy while fighting, no wonder some of them are easily exploded.
For those that don't know the history, the Ottoman Empire was created by the Conqueror Otto somebody, who came from the eastern steppes. North of Afghanistan, along the silk road or even more north than that. Normally north and east of the black sea.
The nomadic hordes converted to Islam, as the raiding and slave taking was something the nomads felt fit their culture. The Mongols and the Golden Horde came from even farther east, straight up out of China and Mongolia, through the silk road.
The Armenians are north of Mosul, on the eastern end of Anatolia, right under south of the mountain range. Islamic Jihad from former Christian Syria and Egypt rolled over the Armenians in wave after wave of generational depopulations. The Turks took over a weakened Anatolia.
The Armenians were the true loyal Orthodox Christians, vanguard defenders of the Byzantines. The Ottoman Empire liked to eradicate the Armenians because they refused to convert. Those people are tough, and some left for America. They're still Orthodox Christian. What's left of them.
So the "Turkish" ethnicity is spread around all over, what didn't get eradicated by Genghis Khan that is.
The Kurds, another cultural ethnicity, would be based around Mosul, south of the Armenians. The Armenians and the Kurds have been fighting Arabs and Persians and Islamic hordes for a long, long time. The DNA genotype left over, unactivated epigenetics, will be interesting to see bear fruit.
I thought it meant Turkomen, as in the central Asian ethnicity, but no, Syrian Turkmen are in fact Syrians of Turkish descent.
ReplyDelete"Central Asia Turkmens are not to be confused with the Turkmens (or the Turcomans) of the Near East, found primarily in Iraq (see Iraqi Turkmens), Syria (see Syrian Turkmens) and Turkey (see Yörüks), with whom they only share their ethnonym."
Apparently going back to the Seljuk Empire. Wikipedia seems pretty good as an intro on this. New to me, and more worrisome as there's less separation from Turkey. Given that, and the history of Turk-Russo friction, who knows what will grow from this.
Russia has warm water access, right above the Black Sea from Georgia. Although I don't know if they have built any ports or not.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the Black Sea is gated by Constantinople. Russian often prides itself on being the defender of the Orthodox Christian faith, what was left of it when Constantinople fell to the Muslims.
In a more sane world, the US would be supplying Russia with the arms and money to take over Turkey, for their warm waters, in exchange for something else.
The current world war free for all, is pretty chaotic and strange.
The video has the usual shouting of "Allahu Akbar!" while the Russian plane breaks up. It will be absurdly easy for Putin to make his claims that Turkey and ISIS are aligned stick in the court of public opinion after this -- this is a clear violation of the Geneva Conventions by a party trained by a NATO power.
ReplyDeleteThere have already been reports debunking the idea that the Su-24 was engaging ISIS targets. The area it was operating in is instead held by (as has previously been mentioned) Turkmen resistance groups opposed to Assad.
Given that Russian fighters have been locking on to Turkish planes prior to the incident, and given that there are no credible reports disputing the Turkish claims that the Su-24 had in fact been in Turkish airspace (of course the Russians deny it), and given that the Russians seem to now be backing down, I think it's pretty clear to say the Turks were justified in shooting down the aircraft. The Russians had been provoking them, trying to "brush them back", and the Turks called them on it. So now, the Russians had exactly two options, go all in against Turkey (possibly dragging in all of NATO) or folding. Putin couldn't bluff his way out, as the Turks have definitively shown they're not playing that game, and I think we've now seen that Putin was actually bluffing the whole time. By acting bellicose he was hoping to scare the Turks away from interfering with his support of the Assad regime, and it didn't work.
I think you'll see a marked reduction of strikes against those Turkmen enclaves on the Turkic-Syrian border.
And as for the "human rights violation" I doubt we'll ever see anything come of it. I don't think Putin wants to press that claim given the downed civilian airliner in the Ukraine that the world knows was shot down either by Russian troops or Russian sympathizing militias in the Ukraine (who happen to actually be mostly Russian troops).
ReplyDeleteI expect just the opposite: I think Putin will feel obligated to avenge Russia's honor (as he appears to be doing, both with naval artillery and new airstrikes).
ReplyDeleteHe has both a good mind for propaganda and a need to appear strong at home. This is too solid an opportunity to pass up.
Well, I've been wrong before, and I am certain I will be wrong again in the future. Just ask my wife. :)
ReplyDeleteHa! I hear you. :)
ReplyDeleteFrom my FB feed, a snapshot of long lines at what must be the newest rage in fashionable turkeys in Falls Church, Va., and a comment about being in time to "get the turkey." Someone commented: "If you are Russian jet, Turkey get you."
ReplyDelete"So now, the Russians had exactly two options, go all in against Turkey (possibly dragging in all of NATO) or folding. Putin couldn't bluff his way out, as the Turks have definitively shown they're not playing that game, and I think we've now seen that Putin was actually bluffing the whole time."
ReplyDeleteDon't mess with the Turks. When they go in, they mean it. In Korea, every military base had around it "slickie boys" who were always looking for a way to make a quick buck, or steal if the opportunity arose. Except at the Turkish base. They had caught one stealing, executed him and posted him at the gate. No more slickie boy problem.
Told that like it was my story to tell, but that was from my Dad, who did not witness it, but did hear it there from someone who did.
ReplyDeleteMy Dad was stationed in Korea in '62 and had very similar stories to tell. Including the time his driver took a wrong turn and they ended up facing a mess of suspicious and armed Turks. He also described how the Turkish encampment was guarded by a single strand of barbed wire whereas the US camp was surrounded by concertina wire. And only one of the two had problems with theft. Douglas gives a pretty good indication of which had the thieving problem and which didn't.
ReplyDelete