Donald Trump has a clear path to the White House, according to a shocking new poll from SurveyUSA. Trump beats Hillary Clinton 45 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent of voters undecided. He wins a huge share of the Democrats’ non-white base — 25 percent of African Americans, 31 percent of Hispanics and 41 percent of the relatively small Asian vote. That’s a heart attack for the GOP establishment...For the GOP establishment? How do you think it plays with the Democratic Party establishment?
SurveyUSA is a pretty good outfit as pollsters go. In 2012 it skewed Republican v. the final results, but only by 0.5%, with an average error of 2.3% -- meaning it erred both ways, but overall it erred on the Republican side slightly more often. Gallup, by contrast, had an average error of 7.2%, all toward the Republican side.
Every other candidate in the race has nowhere to go but up versus Trump because of his strong name recognition. But Clinton is a household name, too. Everyone else can take comfort in the fact that as people come to know who they are, they'll earn support against Trump versus where they are now. Clinton's camp can't believe that to be true.
Nominating Donald Trump would be one sure way to energize the Democratic base, and we still have another silly season (August 2016) and two Octobers to go. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are serious, yet. When the Democrats get serious, they will find another candidate. I have no clue what the Republicans will do, although I am cheered to see that Carson's numbers have risen.
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Carson made some good moves about a year ago, and then didn't do much with them for a long time. His campaign set up a 'kitchen cabinet' and started building position papers and a reading list for him. He was very clear-sighted and candid about what he didn't know that he needed to know. I know this because I was approached to write some position papers and primers on certain foreign policy matters (which, in full disclosure, I did -- free of charge). I thought his ability to admit to a lack of depth in some key areas was a sign of great wisdom: like Socrates, knowing what he doesn't know.
ReplyDeleteHe clearly didn't read them, though, because he continued to give interviews in which he expressed no improvement in his knowledge of these matters. But perhaps foreign policy was not his chief interest and he filed them toward the back of his reading list. He seems to be getting through his list, and he's improving as a candidate.
I haven't been able to decide if he's serious. Frankly, I think his manager Armstrong Williams mostly likes the idea of him appearing serious -- and a contender -- because it sharply improves the rate Carson receives for speeches. I don't think Williams really wants him to win, but only to appear to be in the running so he can stay on the gravy train. Carson still doesn't have the structure he'll need to win. They are doing well in the polls in places, but they haven't built out a campaign with the ground game they will need to win.
Of course, there may be time yet. But the money's not flowing his way, not really, and the money is going to be increasingly important to fielding a catch-up ground game. Some folks with large cash would have to decide to back him for him to turn things around.
Although this article suggests he's gotten a new campaign manager -- someone named Bennett -- which is news to me. So maybe he is serious, and is making changes even to his inner circle as necessary.
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