An opinion on Iran

An Informed Opinion on Iran:

Michael Totten has an interview with a CIA agent from Iran's Revolutionary Guards. He has an opinion on the subject of why Iran wants nukes.

MJT: So do you think if they acquire nuclear weapons they will actually use them?

Reza Kahlili: They will.

MJT: Against Israel?

Reza Kahlili: You have to look at the parallel projects that they're working on, the missile delivery system and the nuclear project. Currently they cover part of Europe. Their goal is to cover all of Europe. They're not going to announce they have a bomb unless they have overcome the glitches of putting together a nuclear bomb and a nuclear warhead. But once they do that, they will make enough bombs so that all of Europe is under their coverage. Then they will begin their most aggressive behavior in trying to control the Middle East, moving toward the goal of destroying Israel, bringing the imperialistic system of economics to a halt, creating chaos, and waiting for the Mahdi to appear. It's all right out in the open. Just look at their Mahdi philosophy.

What does he think we should do about it?

Immediately, the Western countries should cut off all shipping lines and air lines, and deport all Iranians who work in offices connected to the Iranian government. They're Quds Force members. They're intelligence guys. Deport them. And stop sending refined oil to Iran. They rely on that.

Corner the country and give them a deadline. And if the Iranian government doesn't give up its program, take it out. Do not allow this country to become nuclear armed. Sanctions are not going to work.

In the worst case scenario, if there is a military confrontation, do not invade the country. Do not destroy the country. Take the Revolutionary Guards out. If you take the Revolutionary Guards out, this government can't last 24 hours.

We know all their bases. We know all their officers. We know all their buildings. If they move in convoys, take them out. And that will be the end of this government.

Predictions like that are common: often it proves that an enemy you expect to destroy quickly and easily proves much more dangerous than you expected. Collapsing central authority with no ground forces to restore order would be, essentially, the same core mistake made in Iraq when we disbanded the Iraqi army and put nothing in its place.

Could the Iranian people restore order themselves? It's possible. It's also possible that different factions could spark a civil war that would consume the lives of thousands or hundreds of thousands.

While I have no desire to wage war with Iran, though, I do believe he's right about their penchant for confrontation. There is no doubt that Iran has been hip deep in supporting every kind of terrorism and insurgency, and their weapons -- planted by insurgents they trained -- have killed many American soldiers and Marines. Why wouldn't they use a nuclear weapon, when they've never hesitated to use any other weapon that came to their hand?