The Economics of Obesity

Smoke 'Em:

This one is mostly for Doc Russia, who was advocating a good cigar the other day:

We have also unmasked a second and perhaps more surprising culprit in the alarming rise in obesity: the crackdown on smoking via tax increases. Higher cigarette taxes and higher cigarette prices have caused more smokers to quit -- but these smokers seem to have begun eating more as a result. According to our research, each 10 percent increase in the real price of cigarettes produces a 2 percent increase in the number of obese people, other things being equal.

Clearly, those who curtail their habit or quit smoking altogether typically gain weight as the appetite-suppressing and metabolism-increasing effects of smoking come to an end. This is no small effect: The inflation-adjusted price of cigarettes has risen by approximately 164 percent since 1980. This large growth resulted in part from four federal excise tax hikes, a number of state tax hikes, and the settlement of the state lawsuits filed against cigarette manufacturers to recover Medicaid funds spent treating diseases related to smoking. The rise in the real price of cigarettes is the second-most important factor next to the growth in restaurants in the trend in the post-1980 obesity trend. We estimate that it accounts for almost 20 percent of the growth in obesity.

There you go. Smoke, and you increase your risk of heart disease and cancer; don't smoke, and you increase your risk of heart disease and diabetes, depression, and cancer. Smoke, and you may join the 430,000 people a year who die from smoking-related illness; don't smoke, and you may join the 400,000 people a year who die from obesity-related illness.

Once again, a life of regulated vice seems to be the wisest choice.