Grim's Hall

Afghanistan Update:

Deepikaglobal.com has this report, which appears to draw on StratFor's premium services:

Taliban's control of Zabul, stalemate for US-led forces: Stratfor

Washington, Aug 11 (UNI) The Taliban has wrested control of most of Zabul province in southeastern Afghanistan-- for the first time recapturing a province since being ousted from power by the US military in November 2001-- geopolitical analytical firm Stratfor reported.

The small size and disproportionate distribution of US-led coalition forces also has been a factor in the Taliban advances, it said. US-led forces number a meager 11,500, while the Afghan national army has only about 4,000 troops. Areas left thinly guarded were targeted by the Taliban, which has been able to set up checkpoints in Kandahar to eliminate key political and religious figures there and in other southern provinces.

Authorities in Zabul also have complained to the media about shortage of military funding from Kabul.

UN Special Envoy to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi had warned in early May that "forces believed to be associated with the Taliban, al Qaeda and [war lord] Hekmatyar have been stepping up operations in the south, southeast and east of the country," Stratfor pointed out.

Stratfor said the Taliban had began its campaign to retake Zabul about five months ago. Prompted by the May 27 killing of Taliban resistance leader Mullah Ghausuddin in Zabul during a battle with government troops, Taliban Supreme Leader Mullah Mohammed Omar reorganized his forces in the south.

Pamphlets were distributed in Zabul, urging Afghan soldiers and police to join the struggle against the Karzai regime and its US supporters.

When key Taliban guerrilla commander Mullah Abdur Rahim was wounded earlier this year, the Omar appointed a top intelligence officer from his former regime, Mullah Abdus Samad, to help him carry out operations, the report said.

The new round of attacks on US and Afghan government forces in Zabul and the neighboring provinces began after a three-day meeting in July of senior Taliban leaders and tribal elders, who appointed Mullah Jabbar as a rival governor in Zabul, it added.

Zabul's provincial deputy governor, Mullah Mohammed Omar (not to be confused with the Taliban supreme leader), was quoted as saying that the government's failure to pay troops' salaries was causing the army to lose strength, it said.

Before Zabul fell, the provincial military had warned of an imminent defeat if the central government did not send reinforcements and air support from the United States, the report said quoting press reports. It appears that the provincial forces retreated, paving the way for a takeover by the Taliban.


Stratfor said its sources have confirmed reports first published on a Web site maintained by Muslim jihadists, jihadunspun.com, that Taliban fighters, in concert with al Qaeda forces, have have retaken Zabul.

The advance also underscores the stalemate between the United States and its Afghan allies against the Taliban. It indicates that the alliance formed in early 2002 between the Taliban, al Qaeda and Hizb-i-Islami -- the party led by Afghan war lord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar -- is paying off for the militants, Stratfor said in a report.

It said Zabul is of strategic and military importance for a number of reasons. Taking Zabul cuts off US troops stationed to the south in Kandahar from the bulk of US troops located to the north toward Kabul, it said, and given that Helmand and Oruzgan provinces to the north of Zabul already are Taliban strongholds, the group can better try to isolate US and local provincial troops in Kandahar and eventually attempt to retake Kandahar as well.

Also, controlling Zabul gives the Taliban a way to cut lines of logistics, troop supply and communication between US and coalition troops in Kandahar and in Paktika and Paktia provinces to the east and along the border with Pakistan.

The Taliban's ability to retake virtually all of a province of such strategic importance is partly explained by the fact that the south has been the Taliban's traditional stronghold, Stratfor said.

Beginning in late March and early April -- expecting the United States would be preoccupied with the war in Iraq -- the Taliban perceived an opportunity to begin regrouping, particularly in Zabul, Oruzgan, Kandahar, Helmand, Nimruz and Farah.

Playing a key role in the Taliban's success has been disaffection among southern Afghans helping the ousted group to recruit fighters and to garner support from the local population. This disaffection stems partly from a sense that development promised by the central government and the United States is proceeding at a snail's pace.

Taliban attacks have halted virtually all work by international aid agencies, the report said. Also, many Pushtuns reportedly feel they are underrepresented at the national level, even though President Hamid Karzai is an ethnic Pushtun.
The takeover of Zabul also fuels accusations by the Afghan government that Pakistan is supporting the Taliban. Stratfor quoted its sources in Pakistan as saying that a significant portion of the Pakistani intelligence service and military, particularly junior officers, have not abandoned the Taliban. Though there might be truth to the government's accusations, it also is possible the Karzai government -- which has been criticized for being unable to extend its reach beyond Kabul -- is trying to defend itself by pointing fingers at Islamabad, Stratfor said.

Since the United States likely will launch a massive counteroffensive, Zabul might not remain in Taliban hands for long, Stratfor analysts predicted.

However, they said, the fact that Taliban apparently could regain control of a province, even temporarily, underscores the vulnerability of the Karzai regime and the military stalemate between the Afghan government and Taliban fighters.

Stratfor said its sources in Afghanistan say it is possible the Taliban could seize more provinces neighboring Zabul because of what it describes as the structural and functional inabilities of the Karzai government.

Meanwhile the US appears to be focused on Iraq and lacks a clear strategy for neutralizing the threat from the alliance between the Taliban, al Qaeda and Hizb-i-Islami as well as from other Afghan forces that don't necessarily share their Islamist ideology but oppose the US presence in Afghanistan, Stratfor said.

The larger question now is: What will happen in the long term, should the US military pull out of Afghanistan or should Afghanistan no longer enjoy its high-priority status on the list of US foreign policy initiatives?

Meanwhile, this Voice of America piece confirms that the UN will not be operating in Zabul, among other areas. I dispute that the US is entirely focused on Iraq, as we are increasing aid to Afghanistan by a factor of three. Still, it is hard to dispute that we've lost control of most of Zabul, and other areas near the Pakistan border. I continue to hold out hope that this is Op. Anaconda writ large. As my correspondant Mr. Ware noted before, we have multibattalion strength special operations forces in Afghanistan. There is no telling what blow they may be preparing.

Still and all, it looks grim--no pun intended. Fortunately the US and major international media remains blind to the business.