Grim's Hall

Speak Softly & Carry a Big Stick:

In spite of a half dozen repetitions by administration officials last week that we have no intention of invading, North Korea seems to be making the first placatory noises in quite a while. The Financial Times reports today on what is, on its face, not a big concession--but it is a concession, which is a start.

In a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry, North Korea said: "If the US is ready to make a bold switch-over in its Korea policy for a settlement of the nuclear issue, [North Korea] will not stick to any particular dialogue format."

Pyongyang had previously insisted the crisis could be resolved only through bilateral dialogue with the US but Washington feared such talks would reward North Korea's nuclear "blackmail". Instead, the US has proposed multilateral talks, involving other interested countries, such as South Korea, Japan and China.

I personally have had no feeling that the Iraq war would inspire good behavior from the DPRK, as I expect it will from Iran and Syria, and others in the Middle East. The DPRK, being probably possessed of nuclear arms, and certainly possessed of ballistic missiles, would stand of US pressure at sword's point. Certainly the DPRK has been working feverishly to bring its reactor online, though technical problems have prevented it in spite of round-the-clock efforts.

The Iraq war does seem to have impressed Pyongyang, however, and more importantly, it has impressed China:

North Korea has come under heavy diplomatic pressure from its neighbours to accept the US offer of multilateral talks. In particular, diplomats said China, North Korea's closest ally, had become much more active in persuading Pyongyang to back down.

Washington and Pyongyang have no formal diplomatic relations but the pair have been communicating in recent weeks through the UN in New York. China is also thought to have passed messages between the two sides.

It's too early to do more than hope--there are serious concerns that make a negotiated settlement highly unlikely to prove successful in derailing the DPRK's nuclear project. Still, Washington's soft-spoken approach hasn't been spineless: there is a big stick held in plain sight. That report is from Japan, and highlights not only the US but also the Japanese stick; this report, from Reuters, spells out Pyongyang's peril in bold letters.