Grim's Hall

On J. M. Marshall:

Twice now in recent days I've had J. M. Marshall called to my attention. His latest piece in the Financial Times takes Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to task for what Mr. Marshall considers an inadequate force deployed in Iraq. Mr. Marshall has a number of friends in the defense establishment, who share his opinion that the deployed force was simply not of the overwhelming force that conventional military doctrine calls for. Mr. Marshall:

Mr Rumsfeld and his associates did not need much convincing that they knew modern warfare as well, or better, than anyone. But success in Afghanistan buoyed them considerably. When they began planning to invade Iraq, the success in Afghanistan played a key role in their thinking. Indeed, Mr Rumsfeld and his deputies first pushed for a war plan that had considerably fewer troops than are stationed in Iraq and Kuwait even now.



Beyond their theories of modern warfare, they brought two priorities to the current war plan. First, they are committed to a vision of military world dominance that requires the US to be able to mount a number of rapid moves against hostile, rogue states around the globe. As a result, they wanted to take down Saddam Hussein in a manner than made clear that the US could act rapidly against others. Attacking Iraq without mobilising America's entire arsenal was an important part of making that that threat credible. Second, they embraced an interpretation of the politics of the Arab world that made it seem extremely likely that US and UK troops would be welcomed as liberators in Iraq rather than invaders. They discounted the likelihood of the guerrilla warfare we are witnessing now.



Still, some are wondering today why Mr Rumsfeld, an American patriot who has dedicated much of his life to public service, would take such a chance with the war in Iraq. The answer is simple: hubris. He and his deputies did not regard it as a risk. They were sure that they were right.

I have two things to say about this. The first is: they -are- right. The force deployed is more than adequate to destroying the Iraqi regime, quickly and efficiently. That will become clear in the next few days. The war is now thirteen days (!) old. Paris fell to the Nazi army in forty-four days. The 1st Marine Divison is now driving on Baghdad, and the 3rd Infantry had a big fight with the Republican Guard today. Things are going to happen quickly now. With a substantial number of special operations forces already contesting the streets of Baghdad, the destruction of the ring-defenses is all that remains to the liberation of the city. There is no safe haven for the Republican Guard; there is no resupply for them. There will be no reinforcements--there is nowhere from whence they might come. The 1st Marine alone is larger in size than the remaining Republican Guards, has better equipment, better training, better intelligence, and air support. Anyone trying to fall back on the city will be exposed first to air strikes, and then to hammer-and-anvil tactics between spec ops units in Baghdad, and Marine units closing on the rear.

The second thing to say is that Rumsfeld's strategem has demonstrated a capacity to take down regimes quickly. The decapitation strike at the start of the war seems to have shattered the Iraqi command structure. It is increasingly unlikely that Saddam is alive. His statement today--the most important statement a leader can make to his army, bolstering them in the face of certain defeat by a foreign army--was delievered by his information minister. It wasn't even a recording of him giving it. If the Rumsfeld strategy can kill the enemy leaders within half an hour of the start of the war, it's no strategy to lightly malign. Hubris? It's a level of competence the Greeks would have called isotheos. Indeed, they used that word--"equal to the gods," it means--on men who achieved far less.

Some difficulties remain. Syria must be kept out of the war, and also Israel--Syria could plunge the region into chaos by attacking both US and Israeli lines, forcing a reply from both of us that would look united to the Arab world. There will be some cleanup work on these irregular forces that are harrassing supply lines. The war is nearing its close, though. Twenty thousand Marines are a force not easily resisted.