tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post7059572616979479619..comments2024-03-28T21:41:32.110-04:00Comments on Grim's Hall: Thoughts on the US Navy/IRGC debacleGrimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-65450874276166772692016-01-19T08:20:12.154-05:002016-01-19T08:20:12.154-05:00Yeah, never fear, those "prisoners" were...Yeah, never fear, those "prisoners" were bought and paid for with your tax dollars. No worries though, the Iranians will NEVER do it again, I'm sure...MikeDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08116809134355184859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-57169251343036116862016-01-18T22:27:21.318-05:002016-01-18T22:27:21.318-05:00Which they had no real reason to do so. I mean, th...<i>Which they had no real reason to do so. I mean, those prisoners were tried and convicted. </i><br /><br />I understand that Iran got an additional $1.7B for doing so, plus the release of a number of its own spies... er, nationals who were unaccountably oppressed by our government for helping them violate the nuclear sanctions... I mean, engage in free and lawful trade. Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-60522179314749761142016-01-18T22:22:13.289-05:002016-01-18T22:22:13.289-05:00I think the Iranians did it to see what the admini...I think the Iranians did it to see what the administration's reaction would be. It basically didn't react, so the Iranians let the sailors go, and possibly more significantly, released those other prisoners. Which they had no real reason to do so. I mean, those prisoners were tried and convicted. <br /><br />No reason to let them go. Iran was going to get its money. They're seeing what the agreement they made really means, I think. <br /><br />The Saudis have got to be getting more and more nervous. <br /><br /><br /><br />Eric Blairnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-10378729730105992682016-01-18T18:01:58.401-05:002016-01-18T18:01:58.401-05:00This thing smells funny. Funny like bad crab bait....This thing smells funny. Funny like bad crab bait. <br /><br />We are asked, essentially, to believe our Navy is so utterly incompetent they had no idea how to navigate, how to secure a tow on a dead in the water vessel, or how to fight off a few bass boats. <br /><br />I think the whole operation was deliberately planned by the upper ranks of traitors here and the Iranians, for some purpose unknown to us. Maybe the Iranians wanted to stick their thumb in our eye, and used the ever present "treaty" excuse once again as the worlds longest obama-lever.<br /> Maybe obtaining the electronic equipment was the sole reason for the whole operation. Who knows what was on those boats or why.<br /><br /> ravennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-3935203118587750772016-01-18T15:26:22.331-05:002016-01-18T15:26:22.331-05:00Which government? The real trick with Iran is that...<i>Which government? The real trick with Iran is that it has two, functionally. The IRGC reports to the explicitly religious Revolutionary government, as opposed to the quasi-Western-structured elected government. </i><br /><br />The answer is that the religious Revolutionary government is, in fact, in control of everything. The elected government is a farce put up to pay lip service to the idea that Iran is a Islamic Revolutionary Republic. It is not. There is not a single power held by the elected government that can override the will of the Ayatollahs, and there never will be (short of another revolution). <br /><br /><i>The Supreme Commander, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he's the guy who makes the call.</i><br /><br />But this is true of everything in Iran. So, as I said, they pretend to not be able to control the IRGC, but... well you know.<br /><br /><i>What if Iran has figured out a way to jam/spoof GPS and got these guys to go off course while they thought they were in international waters? That would have huge implications beyond this incident. They may have done it with that drone a few years back, and this incident would give them the military encrypted GPS to work with, as they 'seized' it.</i><br /><br />I've seen this theory and rejected it. Mostly because the GPS is not the only navigational tool on a Navy boat. They're required to keep multiple records of their progress, and use multiple navigational tools to do so. Many former Navy folks (including the brown water guys) all say they don't buy the "drifted into Iranian waters" bit, specifically because of this.<br /><br />First off, if you want to accuse the crew of malfeasance and dereliction of duty, I might accept that, but I won't take it as a first order assumption. You'd need to prove that they'd been deficient on navigational charts prior to this incident for me to start to believe the dereliction explanation. If their inertial charts, plotted course, and GPS disagree in any way, a responsible crew would immediately report that fact and figure out which one was off, then ignore the bad data from it until the "malfunction" could be identified. The second reason I reject it is that the technical level required to spoof three geostationary satellites while completely masking their actual signal is beyond the Iranians. Hell, they can't even build <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2277412/Fake-stealth-plane-Irans-Photoshopped-fighter-jet-spotted-air.html" rel="nofollow">believable fake aircraft</a>. I take their aerospace technological ability as slightly more credible than <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-north-korea-bomb-20160106-story.html" rel="nofollow">North Korea's</a>. These are not technical people. The Russians might could pull such a thing off. The Iranians? Not so much. Sure, they might confuse a drone which has extremely limited instrumentation and could be subject to strong ground based interference. A boat miles off shore? No way.<br /><br /><i>And the bigger question- Why wouldn't they do this? What repercussions would they expect relative the the obvious gains they would receive? None, under this administration.</i><br /><br />Bingo. In fact, I pretty much suspect they did it because they could, because it would tweak Obama right before his last SOTU address, and because the IGRC doesn't need much excuse to commit general thuggery. They did it to the British and got away with it in 2008, why not the equally feckless Obama administration? After all, he crowed about "stopping Iran from getting a nuclear bomb", when his agreement with Iran did no such thing at all.MikeDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08116809134355184859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-28827483217177547522016-01-18T15:17:22.375-05:002016-01-18T15:17:22.375-05:00John F. Kerry says he called the Foreign Minister ...<b>John F. Kerry says he called the Foreign Minister and made this 'quick release' happen.</b><br /><br />When the gov acts "quickly", it's not due to an abundance of competence and planning, just as when they fail to act in Benghazi, it wasn't due to being stupid or incompetent. This seems rather close to the "intentional setup" type of thing.<br /><br />Where people are quick, as I said before, because they knew what was going to happen ahead of time.<br /><br />Both Benghazi and Bergdahl might have all been about finding justifications, using false flag ops, for giving away prisoners. The SOP is too similar over a period of time. The operations don't look exactly the same, since the Pentagon had authority over Bergdahl, but it is very close.Ymar Sakarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-16101216339837955382016-01-18T14:47:27.447-05:002016-01-18T14:47:27.447-05:00What if Iran has figured out a way to jam/spoof GP...What if Iran has figured out a way to jam/spoof GPS and got these guys to go off course while they thought they were in international waters? That would have huge implications beyond this incident. They may have done it with that drone a few years back, and this incident would give them the military encrypted GPS to work with, as they 'seized' it.<br /><br />And the bigger question- Why wouldn't they do this? What repercussions would they expect relative the the obvious gains they would receive? None, under this administration.douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03241790925053112959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-80574584177596589582016-01-18T13:17:14.238-05:002016-01-18T13:17:14.238-05:00...the Iranian government pretends they have no co...<i>...the Iranian government pretends they have no control over...</i><br /><br />Which government? The real trick with Iran is that it has two, functionally. The IRGC reports to the explicitly religious Revolutionary government, as opposed to the quasi-Western-structured elected government. <br /><br />John F. Kerry says he called the Foreign Minister and made this 'quick release' happen. But the Foreign Minister really doesn't have control over the IRGC. The Supreme Commander, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he's the guy who makes the call. Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.com