tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post7655427592214243698..comments2024-03-29T03:57:26.974-04:00Comments on Grim's Hall: Correlation and CausationGrimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-54601427490338757132017-08-01T16:19:52.498-04:002017-08-01T16:19:52.498-04:00Oh, the markets going up (and they're much mor...Oh, the markets going up (and they're much more than the Dow) is a net positive. But that's not nearly so important as an increase in the labor force participation rate would be.<br /><br />Eric HinesE Hineshttp://aplebessite.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-75475756385809233862017-08-01T10:39:54.447-04:002017-08-01T10:39:54.447-04:00The DOW has little enough to do with the real econ...The DOW has little enough to do with the real economy anyway; it's all about trading fairy gold. Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-70256536848010539082017-08-01T08:48:43.335-04:002017-08-01T08:48:43.335-04:00PDT has hitched himself to DOW average, which is i...PDT has hitched himself to DOW average, which is insane. DOW goes up, DOW goes down, and we've seen 8 or so years without recession. (Yes, Eric, crap growth, but positive.)<br /><br />When DOW dumps, PDT will look like an idiot. Won't be the first time, either.Dad29https://www.blogger.com/profile/08554276286736923821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5173950.post-48783896194526193002017-07-31T20:16:22.960-04:002017-07-31T20:16:22.960-04:00The markets are tied to the underlying economy by ...The markets are tied to the underlying economy by a very stout rope. However, that rope has a potful of slack in it; there is very little time-based connection between the markets and the underlying economy. Added to this is the potful of resignation under the Obama regime and resulting frustration.<br /><br />The resignation and frustration was sharply released with Trump's election, and the markets have been reflecting the antithesis--lots of enthusiasm (though not <i>irrational exuberance</i>) and confidence. There is a good connection, possibly causal, of the election leading to the markets' current performance.<br /><br />But that does wear off if the economy itself doesn't follow along and justify that confidence. We're still seeing under 2% growth. To a large extent, that's because it takes time for an economy to turn around. But Government has actually to get out of the way, and that means Congress (read: Republicans) have to get off their dead patooties and do some positive things. They have done a lot with repealing many of the more egregiously destructive Obama regulations, but they've got a lot more yet to do.<br /><br />Or else the markets will come back to where the economy is.<br /><br />Eric HinesE Hineshttp://aplebessite.comnoreply@blogger.com