Brian dixit: "The numbers are important. The death toll is not something that just is downplayed, not something we can hide from, even if it’s gut-wrenching to hear about every day. It’s like New Orleans floods every day. It’s like the planes go into the towers every day," Stelter said.
OK, let's look at the numbers. I have been looking at the numbers for COVID-19, a.k.a. Winnie the Flu, for over a month. I soon saw while daily deaths fluctuated a lot through the week, daily results based on a 7-day average gave much less fluctuation. The 7-day average showed increases through about April 15. From 17-23 April, the 7-day average didn't change much- around 2170. The 7-day average peaked at 2199 for 15-21 April, and then showed a falling trend. The 7-day average has fallen nearly a third (32.6%), from 2199 to 1483 in 22 days.
While those numbers tell me it is time to ease up on the shutdown, I very much doubt that Brian Stelter is aware of them.
7-Day Average Daily Deaths (Winnie the Flu)
15-21 April 2199 16-22 April 2162 23-29 April 1966 30 April- 6 May 1877 7-13 May 1483
Note the drastic fall in the last week.
I call it "Winnie the Flu" in an attempt to personalize the situation. Just like Alinsky recommends. Fearless leader Xi, often satirized as Winnie the Pooh, is the person most responsible for the extent of the pandemic. First, by arresting/repressing those in Wuhan who sought to bring the public's attention to the situation, he is responsible for the spread in Wuhan. Second, by permitting flights from Wuhan to outside China, while shutting down Wuhan from the rest of China, he is responsible for the spread of the virus throughout the world.
I looked at those same numbers, but I'm not as optimistic as you.
I think it's pretty obvious that the New York metro area has been skewing the national numbers.
That means that as NY burns through its early peak (people who were exposed before stay-at-home orders + their contacts + wiping out the most vulnerable in nursing homes), and its numbers come down, then the national numbers are looking better too.
But if you look at state-by-state trends, the rest of the country may not be doing as well.
Many of the states have a similar problem with one large metro area skewing the state-wide numbers.
There's a lot of uncertainty about a lot of things, and I'm bothered by the vigor with which so many people insist on their particular wish for how things go.
The graphs at the beginning of this article illustrate my point about NYC's distortion: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Thos, of course it's correct that local leaders should consider the conditions locally, and in some areas, there is still concern they are on the upward trend, but the point people are making is there are plenty of areas, like NYC that are clearly on the downward trend- yet their leaders aren't acting like it, or are hedging things quite a lot as the gingerly reopen.
Thos., your point about looking outside the NY metro area is a point well-taken. I don't look at cases, as cases are to a big degree a function of testing- seek and ye shall find. I instead look at COVID-19, a.k.a. Winnie the Flu, deaths. I am not going to look at the NY metro area per se, as it is easier to look at state data. I am going to include only NY and NJ data, as CT deaths are trivial compared to them. As before, I am looking at 7-day averages. so, my data is US- (NY +NJ), which is a fairly good proxy for US deaths outside the NYC metropolitan area.
On the 21st of April, the 7-day average reached 1200, and remained above 1240 for weeks. In recent days the 7-day average has fallen from 1271 to 1130. Conclusion: deaths outside the NY metro area are also falling, though that fall is recent.
COVID-19 (Winnie the Flu) Deaths outside NY + NJ: 7-day averages 4-10 Apr 779 11-17 Apr 1,043 18-24 Apr 1,258 25 Apr-1 May 1,266 2-8 May 1,271 4-10 May 1,235 5-11 May 1,204 6-12 May 1,133 7-13 May 1,130
I'm in an area seeing a surge in cases - because there is a huge amount of testing going on at five businesses full of people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic who insist on continuing to work (they want/need the money). Some of them live 5-6 in a one bedroom apartment or small rent house. If those cases are set aside, our numbers are dropping.
8 comments:
We are going to have to restore the duel to get this under control. There have to be consequences to lying so emphatically.
Brian Stelter Criticizes 'Right-Wing Media' for Obsessing Over Russia Probe, Flynn Story Instead of COVID-19 Deaths.
Brian dixit:
"The numbers are important. The death toll is not something that just is downplayed, not something we can hide from, even if it’s gut-wrenching to hear about every day. It’s like New Orleans floods every day. It’s like the planes go into the towers every day," Stelter said.
OK, let's look at the numbers. I have been looking at the numbers for COVID-19, a.k.a. Winnie the Flu, for over a month. I soon saw while daily deaths fluctuated a lot through the week, daily results based on a 7-day average gave much less fluctuation. The 7-day average showed increases through about April 15. From 17-23 April, the 7-day average didn't change much- around 2170. The 7-day average peaked at 2199 for 15-21 April, and then showed a falling trend. The 7-day average has fallen nearly a third (32.6%), from 2199 to 1483 in 22 days.
While those numbers tell me it is time to ease up on the shutdown, I very much doubt that Brian Stelter is aware of them.
7-Day Average Daily Deaths (Winnie the Flu)
15-21 April 2199
16-22 April 2162
23-29 April 1966
30 April- 6 May 1877
7-13 May 1483
Note the drastic fall in the last week.
I call it "Winnie the Flu" in an attempt to personalize the situation. Just like Alinsky recommends. Fearless leader Xi, often satirized as Winnie the Pooh, is the person most responsible for the extent of the pandemic. First, by arresting/repressing those in Wuhan who sought to bring the public's attention to the situation, he is responsible for the spread in Wuhan. Second, by permitting flights from Wuhan to outside China, while shutting down Wuhan from the rest of China, he is responsible for the spread of the virus throughout the world.
Corona virus USA
I looked at those same numbers, but I'm not as optimistic as you.
I think it's pretty obvious that the New York metro area has been skewing the national numbers.
That means that as NY burns through its early peak (people who were exposed before stay-at-home orders + their contacts + wiping out the most vulnerable in nursing homes), and its numbers come down, then the national numbers are looking better too.
But if you look at state-by-state trends, the rest of the country may not be doing as well.
Many of the states have a similar problem with one large metro area skewing the state-wide numbers.
There's a lot of uncertainty about a lot of things, and I'm bothered by the vigor with which so many people insist on their particular wish for how things go.
The graphs at the beginning of this article illustrate my point about NYC's distortion:
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Brian Stelter is The Man, putting the "Pro" back into "Projection"
Thos, of course it's correct that local leaders should consider the conditions locally, and in some areas, there is still concern they are on the upward trend, but the point people are making is there are plenty of areas, like NYC that are clearly on the downward trend- yet their leaders aren't acting like it, or are hedging things quite a lot as the gingerly reopen.
Thos., your point about looking outside the NY metro area is a point well-taken. I don't look at cases, as cases are to a big degree a function of testing- seek and ye shall find. I instead look at COVID-19, a.k.a. Winnie the Flu, deaths. I am not going to look at the NY metro area per se, as it is easier to look at state data. I am going to include only NY and NJ data, as CT deaths are trivial compared to them. As before, I am looking at 7-day averages. so, my data is US- (NY +NJ), which is a fairly good proxy for US deaths outside the NYC metropolitan area.
On the 21st of April, the 7-day average reached 1200, and remained above 1240 for weeks. In recent days the 7-day average has fallen from 1271 to 1130.
Conclusion: deaths outside the NY metro area are also falling, though that fall is recent.
COVID-19 (Winnie the Flu) Deaths outside NY + NJ: 7-day averages
4-10 Apr 779
11-17 Apr 1,043
18-24 Apr 1,258
25 Apr-1 May 1,266
2-8 May 1,271
4-10 May 1,235
5-11 May 1,204
6-12 May 1,133
7-13 May 1,130
Corona virus USA
I'm in an area seeing a surge in cases - because there is a huge amount of testing going on at five businesses full of people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic who insist on continuing to work (they want/need the money). Some of them live 5-6 in a one bedroom apartment or small rent house. If those cases are set aside, our numbers are dropping.
LittleRed1
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