The Costly Failure to Update Sky-Is-Falling Predictions

Sean Trende over at RCP has a very good article looking at coronavirus predictions that didn't pan out and the social cost of the failure of experts and media sources to acknowledge and update their reporting.

As part of this, he covers predictions on the re-opening of several states, including Florida, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and how they were wrong.

It's a good one-stop page for showing people the facts of the case as well as how predictions were wrong, and would be useful for arguing for opening up. I'll be sending the link to people I know, so thought I'd share.

2 comments:

douglas said...

If there was one thing I wish people would take away from this experience after all is said and done is just how much science *doesn't know* and just attempts to extrapolate from what it does know (which is in fact very little in the greater scheme of things). We'd all be better off knowing that.

I also wish political leaders and the media would see the damage they do to the public trust when they try to 'manage' the population rather than simply inform and recommend. The damage done to the social trust, as the piece notes at the end, will be severe from this. As if it weren't bad enough already.

Of course, both of those are pie in the sky fantasy on my part, I know.

raven said...

"The damage done to the social trust, as the piece notes at the end, will be severe from this. As if it weren't bad enough already."

That is the point- this is simply an extension of the breaking down of the family unit, and social bonds- each individual is to be alone, isolated, helpless and only finding succor in the State.