Test fail

The botched rollout of bottlenecked coronavirus testing is fertile ground for left-vs.-right bashing: it simultaneously shows that the Trump administration callously or stupidly failed to get the CDC to do something right, and that the CDC is the deadly, bottlenecking, calcified, politicized Deep State the Trump administration is saddled with. I remain unconvinced that testing is the most important thing right now, much as I would love to have the luxury of 100% knowledge of who in this country harbors either live virus or effective antibodies.

Powerline notes that the numbers from Japan and Seoul suggest that testing isn't brilliantly correlated with death rates per capita, which is a lot more interesting data than case-positive rates. Early on, fabulous testing might allow a few sparks to be stamped out before they spread; at this point, we're probably past that strategy.  It's possible that masks, or other factors such as social-distancing, ICU beds or ventilators per capita, or treatments will prove more important:
Perhaps these experts should look harder at the actual data and not just their models. The data certainly suggest more testing may not be our savior. Alternatively, the Trump administration should consider asking governors to mandate, not suggest, that their citizens wear face masks in public. South Korea’s and Japan’s experience suggests that combining this policy with one that more surgically isolated the elderly and most vulnerable while allowing most of the country to go back to work would provide more effective protection from the virus and at a far, far lower cost.

3 comments:

ymarsakar said...

Do people know how many vaccine patents CDC/WHO are involved with on a financial level?

You won't see Ymar talking about how independent/good the CDC/Who are. I don't care how many comments people think they have read from me. That's one illusion that needs to be dispelled.

Aggie said...

The problem with pandemics is that it attracts and commands the attention of everyone, and the most talented scientists and medical professionals, who specialize in infectious diseases, put their professional expertise forward to get involved and have their say.

But these are the ones who want to focus on understanding the disease, it's pathology, and its vectors through the biosphere. Their objective is for posterity's sake. And they report to politicians, who's objective is a responsibility to administer to alleviate the impact on the populace who are suffering in real time.

Hence you get eggheads like Fauci who have a lot to offer, and yet are disconnected with the idea of treating right goddam now even if the putative drugs have not gone through their medical-journal-research-grade-double-blind-verification and FDA holy water. Having these people and organizations revert and rely on their customary approvals cycle is pure-D madness.

There needs to be a triage-type solution for times of urgent crisis. If one thing comes out of this, let it be a strategy to begin structuring short-term-result trials with willing volunteers so that we can get on with it in the real world. We can't have the administrative state choking out patients because they haven't had the opportunity to bless the treatment through normal multi-year channels.

douglas said...

For what it's worth, a really interesting fellow on twitter who is also an actual virologist is Chris Von Csefalvay (@chrisvcsefalvay). He pretty much disdains politics in general, so that isn't likely to slant his thinking, though he may be a little prone to the inappropriate patience you attribute to Fauci, but his information has been more useful on a range of issues than most.